The liquidity monster is hungry.
The US Treasury is effectively acting as a massive money printer, but the transmission belt connecting debt issuance to stock market gains is beginning to slip. While seasonal tax revenue provides a temporary liquidity “firehose,” structural regime cha…
The “data” was a model, the model is a fiction, and the fiction is being sold to you by the people who stand to profit.
Short Term and Intraday Pattern views for April 7, 2006
The market broke its downtrend last week but established a new intermediate downtrend channel, with cycle alignments suggesting an intermediate low forming here. However, failure to mount a significant rally from current levels or a breakdown of key su…
The market broke its downtrend last week but established a new intermediate downtrend channel, with cycle alignments suggesting an intermediate low forming here. However, failure to mount a significant rally from current levels or a breakdown of key su…
Current results are terrible, in fact the worst month since beginning this exercise 9 years ago, and especially since tweaking the algorithms in November 2024.
Cycles are in gear to the downside, except for the 4 week cycle, which has extended beyond its ideal bottom window. The 6-7 week cycle projection of xxxx is an outlier for now, but if projected channel support around xxxx breaks, this could turn into a…
Exploding deficits, and exploding Treasury supply, from already insanely bloated levels.
Federal tax data tells a story the BLS doesn’t: employment growth is stalling, corporate profits are getting squeezed by tariffs, and a ballooning deficit shows no sign of moderating — with war costs making it worse. That can mean only one thing.