The BLS reported a seasonally adjusted 20.5 million jobs lost in April and stocks rallied on the news. Wall Street loves both death and unemployment apparently.
Stocks are selling off this morning but the trend still favors the bulls. Here are the parameters to watch that would confirm, or signal a change.
Macro liquidity has slowed slightly in recent weeks as the Fed has taken its foot off the accelerator. But it continues to grow at an historic pace. What does that mean for the short term and the long term.
Oh, wait.
There is no long term.
The BLS reported a seasonally adjusted 20.5 million jobs lost in April and stocks rallied on the news. Wall Street loves both death and unemployment apparently.
The more deaths, the more the market rallies. Yesterday’s US COVID 19 death toll was 2,528, the highest since April 21. The University of Washington model, which has been pretty accurate, now calls for 3,000 deaths a day in June as states reopen their economies.
Notice how the stock market correlates. Deaths have broken out. Will stocks follow?
The Fed has cut back its POMO purchases to an average of $8 billion per day of Treasuries and $6 billion of MBS this week. That’s down from $10 billion and $8 billion last week, and hundreds of billions in the peak of the panic in April.
The effects of that are beginning to show up in stock prices. Be prepared because here’s what happens next.
A month ago the Fed was buying all new Treasury issuance and then some. Now it’s nowhere close to doing that. In recent days the Fed has been absorbing only around a fifth of new Treasury issuance. Is it enough?
A month ago the Fed was buying all new Treasury issuance and then some. Now it’s nowhere close to doing that. So is the Fed doing enough to keep the short term bull trend going? Here’s today’s technical setup.
So is the Fed doing enough to keep the short term bull trend going? Below is how it looks today.
Meanwhile, rogue elements of the Trump Regime, known as “doctors and epidemiologists,” are estimating a doubling of the COVID19 death toll in the weeks ahead as states try to reopen their economies. Stock futures are cheering on the predicted rise in the death toll.
Buy Death, the traders say!
Gold is consolidating. The uptrend will be safe as long as a key support level holds. This report looks at where to start worrying, and…