At least on Monday morning.
Let’s start with the 30 minute bars, then zoom out.
The last move up overnight as of 3:30 AM in NY looks tired and toppy. But with a 2-3 day cycle projection of 3335, there’s some prospect of a second wind.
…
Straight from the bowels of the NY Fed.
We have known for a couple of months that there would be a mountain of Treasury supply hitting the market at the end of September. We also knew that Fed QE would be far from adequate to absorb this supply. So I have expected something bearish for stocks at the end of September. This could spill over into the first week of October.
But then things get hairy for bears, with potentially happy days for bulls. Unfortunately, we have a little problem this week. There’s no visibility. We don’t know what they have planned for the next couple weeks. That’s different from usual, where we can usually see ahead for a week or two because we know the Fed’s QE schedule, and also pretty much know how much Treasury supply to expect.
Now, thanks to the exigencies of the past pandemiconomic US Treasury fund raising back in March and April, we don’t have that luxury on Treasury supply, which forces us to surmise some things.
Here they are.
Crossing Patterns Confuse the Defense 9/25/20, was my original heading on the thread at the Stool Pigeons Wire.
Well, at least that was the case a couple of hours ago, but no longer.
Monetary policy can be implemented through outright purchases or sales of securities, which permanently changes the size of the Federal Reserve’s System Open Market Account (SOMA) portfolio.
Here’s that beautiful 2 hour bar chart again. It sure looks like it’s trying to bottom here, if you look at where it is, and the behavior of the lower indicators. In addition, the 5 day cycle projection of 3218 was hit. But I would have expected more …
Broadcast straight from the bowels of the US Treasury. What’s that smell?
The uptrend from yesterday’s low looks solid, with a 5 day cycle projection of 3330-40. But first, trend resistance is suggested at 3316-17, and 3325-30. But even reaching 3340 might not give the bulls a victory in the big picture.
As broadcast straight from the bowels of 222 Liberty Street, NY, the home of the NY Fed
There’s good reason to think that a 13 week cycle low is forming despite lower projections.