The cycle picture is hazy. The table at left (subscriber version) is my best guess. A short term low is due, but at a lower projection. The would-be 13-17 week cycle up phase has gone nowhere, despite a new projection that points higher. If it doesn’t get out of this range soon, it would suggest the possibility of a wicked down phase ahead. If the price holds above the May-August downtrend line as shown on this chart (subscriber version), that would be constructive
Here’s the 2 hour bar look.
Strange. We’re not used to seeing persistent downtrends that last for 8 days. Must have something to do with Sell Rosh Hashanah, Buy Yom Kippur.
And lest we forget, it’s that time of the month. Fed MBS settlement…
Including 5 holdovers from last week, there are now 13 open picks on the list, all longs.
From the 2 hour bar perspective, Friday’s breakdown completed a helluva top pattern. Now, at 5:30 AM NY time, they’re fighting their way back. Here’s the 2 hour bar look.
They’re attacking resistance at 4489. If they get through that, the n…
From a time perspective, the 10-12 month cycle ideally should be in a top phase. But it surpassed its last cycle projection of 4440 so it is probably in trending mode. Both the 6 month cycle and the 13 week cycles appear to be trending.
I started to wonder how the banking indicators were looking lately. I’ve looked at the charts this morning. In updating this for you, I’ve again attempted to minimize the verbiage here. The charts are bad enough.
Focus on what matters, not the false news headlines. Here’s what matters.
I’ll start with the 2 hour bars this morning, for perspective. As of 4 AM in NY, the numbers to watch, progressively, for resistance, are 4518-20, 4525, and 4530. If those are cleared, the next target would be 4550, and that could happen fast.
Then…
Will the bears also score a late goal today to tie the stock market game?
Gold is on the cusp of signaling a possible intermediate cycle low. A daily close above the trendlines at xxxx (subscribers only) would be a good start to confirming that.