I can’t wait to see the down. Indeed, yesterday’s double bottom looks like the 5 day cycle low I was expecting. But the up phase has been punk so far.
When up phases stay flat, the down phases that follow usually have one of two common paths. T…
The purple line is the Fed’s System Open Market Account, in other words, its securities holdings. You see the Fed’s balance sheet normalization 2017-19, and then the return to massive QE in late 2019.
You can see it clearly on the hourly chart of the ES, S&P futures. The market has been cycling like clockwork every 3-4 days. Overnight they completed another downleg, exceeding the 5 day cycle projection of 4400 I posted at the close of regular tr…
A 13 week cycle upturn is ideally due xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx (subscriber version) couple of weeks. It’s the best shot at a rally to…
After a disastrous couple of months in the bond market, conditions are now set up for x xxxxxx there. Treasury bill paydowns will be enormous…
Is that what this bottom is about to do? Hard to say. A 5 day cycle projection of 4450 on the ES S&P futures hourly chart is all but done. The chart looks set up for a bottom here. So if this low breaks, it’s likely to lead to drama on the high sea…
Last week’s daily screens tilted to the sell side again. The final score for the week was 125 Sells to 82 Buys. This was the…
Big T-bill paydowns are coming in the second half of April. That will continue to support a “rally that fools the majority.” But it doesn’t…
The Fed now says it will cut its assets by $95 billion per month. That will add that much to monthly new Treasury supply while…
5:45 AM ET. The 5 day cycle projection on this upswing of the ES S&P futures is 4520. Done! But the base breakout measures to 4539, so maybe we’re not done yet. Hourly indicators are inconclusive. An hourly close below 4500 would be needed for at l…