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Kate Smith Is Quarantined, But Singing In the Shower

Good morning!

Twitter has banned me for using bad words (moi? 😱) 😄. I had tweeted an emotional criticism of a so-called financial news outlet of Newscorp/Dow Jones.

Liquidity moves markets!

Follow the money. Find the profits! 

Banning me for throwing a few cuss words at Rupert Murdoch’s propaganda minions is like banning David for slinging a rock at Goliath. Only I didn’t kill anybody. Besides, they’re impervious to rocks or reason.

But alas, Twitter’s playground monitors stomped their feet and pouted, “Take it back, or we won’t let you play!”

But they also said that, instead of taking it back, I could formally appeal.

I’ll never retract the truth, so I took the second option. My appeal went like this, in the immortal words so often heard from a street kid from Philly: “Stick it up your ass!” 

Good bye Twitter. I never believed in you anyway. 

So if you like this post or anything else you see on Wall Street Examiner, please give it a link on your favorite financial social media site, with my thanks! And please join us at our own little social media playground, Capitalstool.com for my occasional intraday blurtouts. You can add your very own blurts too.  – Lee 

Stock Market Trading Setup for Wedesday, March 11, 2020

Hourly ES S&P 500 Futures Chart

Yesterday

We got the expected rally, but God, it’s pitiful so far. This thing is on the verge of a triangle pattern break. Triangle breakdowns are usually explosive. With the trend channels currently in place, if this breaks below 2780, we could be  looking at a thunderous collapse, as big or bigger than Monday’s.

If 2780 holds, then the challenge would be to break out above the trendline at 2850. That should generate enough momo to get back to 2900, and even the 2975 area.

So everything hangs in the balance there at 8:20 AM in New York.

ES Futures Hourly Chart

Momentum and cycle indicators are in flat patterns near the zero line. Again, here’s something that supports the likelihood of an exposive move.

Given the alignment of the 3 day and 5 day cycles, I think that the move will be to the downside. But I’m just a reporter taking a wild guess. The market is the jury. It will probably hand down its verdict over the next couple of hours. There’s little chance of a hung jury. I expect to hear, GUILTY!

For the umpteenth time I want to say, “There are no ‘oversold’ parameters in a crash. Indicators may rebound while prices have a dead cat bounce, then they both crash again.”

We’ve had a dead cat bounce. Heaven help the bulls if this breaks to the dowside.

China Stock Market Overnight

The Shag High again traded wildly in the same range as the past couple of days. There’s no useful info there, so I’ll skip it until there’s something interesting on the chart.

S&P Futures Daily Chart

 

So is it a bear market? Who cares about the semantics? The question is how much more money the bulls will lose. Or are the shorts going back in the barrel. Well the purpose of these reports is not to divine the longer term, just the day. If you want longer horizons, join me at Liquidity Trader.

The indicators still show no sign of a bottom whatsoever. There’s no oversold parameter in a crash. Positive divergences are almost certainly necessary to form a good swing low. There are no positive divergences on the daily chart yet.

And would you look at that crash channel! Is that a thing of beauty or what! It’s pretty clear what the market needs to do to, to be, or not to be. To end this sleep of death, it at least needs to get back above 3000. Tis a consumation devoutly to be wished by the bulls.

S&P Futures Chart

S&P Cash Index Hourly Chart

The green rectangle at the far right is where the futures have been trading this morning. The range is 2838 to 2778. The upper downtrend line starts the day at 2877 and ends at 2830. That’s the number the bulls have to beat today to break out of this collapse.

On the downside, 2738 is the last line of defense for the bulls. If they lose that, the initial target would be around 2660.

Join me on the Capitalstool.com message board today and I will update you there on occasion. Feel free to join the fun. S&P 500 Hourly Chart

“And that’s the way it is, Wednesday, March 11, 2020.” 

From Zagreb, Croatia, good morning!  

Where have you gone Walter Cronkite? Our nation turns its lonely eyes to you.

Meanwhile, here are the latest reports from Liquidity Trader. 

Lock Limit Down

The S&P futures are trading limit down at 2812 as I write this at 2:50 AM Eastern Time in the US.

I suspect that the PPT will be in action over the next few hours. Whether they’ll be able to get it above support at 2850 or not is the question. And if they do, can they keep it there? If they fail, then we’re in line for an epic crash.

The cycle lineup suggests a low now, at least after this morning’s crash burns out. Here’s what to look out for.

Technical Trader subscribers, click here to download the report.

Not a subscriber? Try Lee Adler’s Technical Trader risk free for 90 days! First time subscribers only.

Dealers Smelling Like A Rose, But Elsewhere the Smell of Death

Investors and leveraged speculators instead took the coronavirus panic straight to the bond market. Dealers, bless their little hearts, were long up the wazoo. Talk about smellin like a rose.

But somebody was short. Big somebodies. They’re dead. We don’t know where the bodies are buried yet, but the Fed will need to exhume them and fill the graves. We watching for the exhumations to see who the dig up, and what they fill the graves with.

Meanwhile, there’s plenty of liquidty in dealer accounts and more on the way.

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Lee Adler

I’ve been publishing The Wall Street Examiner and its predecessor since October 2000. I also publish LiquidityTrader.com, and was lead analyst for Sure Money Investor, of blessed memory. I developed David Stockman's Contra Corner for Mr. Stockman. I’ve had a wide variety of finance related jobs since 1972, including a stint on Wall Street in both sales, analytical, and trading capacities. Prior to starting the Wall Street Examiner I was a commercial real estate appraiser in Florida for 15 years. I was considered an expert in the analysis of failed properties that ended up in the hands of bank REO divisions, the FDIC, and the RTC. Remember those guys? I also worked in the residential mortgage and real estate businesses in parts of the 1970s and 80s. I have been charting stocks and markets and doing analytical work since I was a teenager. I'm not some Ivory Tower academic, Wall Street guy. My perspective comes from having my boots on the ground and in the trenches, as a real estate broker, mortgage broker, trader, account rep, and analyst. I've watched most of the games these Wall Street wiseguys play from right up close. I know the drill from my 55 years of paying attention. And I'm happy to share that experience with you, right here. 

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