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There’s Got To Be a Morning After

Good morning!

Twitter has banned me for using bad words (moi? 😱) 😄. I had tweeted an emotional criticism of a so-called financial news outlet of Newscorp/Dow Jones.

Liquidity moves markets!

Follow the money. Find the profits! 

Banning me for throwing a few cuss words at Rupert Murdoch’s propaganda minions is like banning David for slinging a rock at Goliath. Only I didn’t kill anybody. Besides, they’re impervious to rocks or reason.

But alas, Twitter’s playground monitors stomped their feet and pouted, “Take it back, or we won’t let you play!”

But they also said that, instead of taking it back, I could formally appeal.

I’ll never retract the truth, so I took the second option. My appeal went like this, in the immortal words so often heard from a street kid from Philly: “Stick it up your ass!” 

Good bye Twitter. I never believed in you anyway. 

So if you like this post or anything else you see on Wall Street Examiner, please give it a link on your favorite financial social media site, with my thanks! And please join us at our own little social media playground, for my occasional intraday blurtouts. You can add your very own blurts too.  – Lee 

Stock Market Trading Setup for Tuesday, March 10, 2020

Hourly ES S&P 500 Futures Chart

Yesterday I led off with the thought that the fucutures had a bead on 2700. The intraday low on them ended up being 2695. I’ll try not to break my arm patting myself on the back. But gee, this happens so infrequently, a guy should be allowed to gloat once in a while.

The rally that I half heartedly expected seems to be under way. It better stick for a while, or you can bet your bippy that the gates of hell will open and we will all be consumed in the fires of eternal damnation.

And you know that I never exaggerate.

Here at 8:40 AM NY time, the shorts are getting gently pressured with the S&P futures up a mere 2.9% at 2855. But hey, just a little over a week ago, we were tickling 3400, so who’s complaining. Only the bulls. Bears have to wait a long time to get so satisfyingly laid. It doesn’t happen often. Wow, that felt good.

Channels? You want channels. Yes, we have them. Take your pick. On the upside, the one at 2875 looks critical. If they can’t clear that, get ready to see the gates of hell. But even if they clear it, 2900 looms just overhead. The bulls need to retake that to have any room to stampede.

ES Futures Hourly Chart

On the downside, watch 2800. If they lose that, the next stops would be 2750, 2725, 2675, and somewhere in the low 2600s. If we stop seeing at least a 26 in the front of the 4 digits, “Abandon hope, all ye who enter.”

Momentum and cycle indicators are in bullish configs. That doesn’t mean much when the trend is this weak. A rollover from these levels without further upside progress would be catastrophic. As in catatonic catastrophic.

As a reminder, I redundantly repeat, repetitiously, “There are no ‘oversold’ parameters in a crash. Indicators may rebound while prices have a dead cat bounce, then they both crash again.”

So if any of these support levels on the chart holds, beware the dead cat bounce. Look for broken support to become resistance. When the market breaks through 2900 on the upside, then we can think about a real rebound.

China Stock Market Overnight

The Shag High traded wildly around a slightly larger range than it did on Monday. There’s no useful info there, so I’ll skip it today.

S&P Futures Daily Chart

From yesterday,

Any continuation from here would target the bottom of the trend channel at 2696 today. A close below the October 2019 low would also signal a bear market.

We got a hot stove touch and go from that lower channel yesterday and they closed well below that October 2019 low. As I write, here at 9 AM NY time, they’re trying to recapture it. The day is young. We’ll see.

So is it a bear market? Who cares about the semantics? The question is how much more money the longs going to lose. Or are the shorts going back in the barrel. We’ll the purpose of these reports is not to divine the longer term, just the day. If you want longer horizons, join me at Liquidity Trader.

The indicators still show no sign of a bottom whatsoever. There’s no oversold parameter in a crash. Positive divergences are almost certainly necessary to form a good swing low.

And would you look at that crash channel! Is that a thing of beauty or what! It’s pretty clear what the market needs to do to, to be, or not to be. To end this sleep of death, it at least needs to get back above 3000. Tis a consumation devoutly to be wished by the bulls.

S&P Futures Chart

S&P Cash Index Hourly Chart

The green rectangle at the far right is where the futures have been trading this morning. The range is 2879 to 2768. THe upper downtrend line starts the day at 2905 and ends at 2850. That’s the number the bulls have to beat today to break out of this collapse.

Join me on the message board today and I will update you there on occasion. Feel free to join the fun. S&P 500 Hourly Chart

“And that’s the way it is, Tuesday, March 10, 2020.” 

From Zagreb, Croatia, good morning!  

Where have you gone Walter Cronkite? Our nation turns its lonely eyes to you.

Meanwhile, here are the latest reports from Liquidity Trader. 

Lock Limit Down

The S&P futures are trading limit down at 2812 as I write this at 2:50 AM Eastern Time in the US.

I suspect that the PPT will be in action over the next few hours. Whether they’ll be able to get it above support at 2850 or not is the question. And if they do, can they keep it there? If they fail, then we’re in line for an epic crash.

The cycle lineup suggests a low now, at least after this morning’s crash burns out. Here’s what to look out for.

Technical Trader subscribers, click here to download the report.

Not a subscriber? Try Lee Adler’s Technical Trader risk free for 90 days! First time subscribers only.

Dealers Smelling Like A Rose, But Elsewhere the Smell of Death

Investors and leveraged speculators instead took the coronavirus panic straight to the bond market. Dealers, bless their little hearts, were long up the wazoo. Talk about smellin like a rose.

But somebody was short. Big somebodies. They’re dead. We don’t know where the bodies are buried yet, but the Fed will need to exhume them and fill the graves. We watching for the exhumations to see who the dig up, and what they fill the graves with.

Meanwhile, there’s plenty of liquidty in dealer accounts and more on the way.

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Lee Adler

I’ve been publishing The Wall Street Examiner and its predecessor since October 2000. I also publish, and was lead analyst for Sure Money Investor, of blessed memory. I developed David Stockman's Contra Corner for Mr. Stockman. I’ve had a wide variety of finance related jobs since 1972, including a stint on Wall Street in both sales, analytical, and trading capacities. Prior to starting the Wall Street Examiner I was a commercial real estate appraiser in Florida for 15 years. I was considered an expert in the analysis of failed properties that ended up in the hands of bank REO divisions, the FDIC, and the RTC. Remember those guys? I also worked in the residential mortgage and real estate businesses in parts of the 1970s and 80s. I have been charting stocks and markets and doing analytical work since I was a teenager. I'm not some Ivory Tower academic, Wall Street guy. My perspective comes from having my boots on the ground and in the trenches, as a real estate broker, mortgage broker, trader, account rep, and analyst. I've watched most of the games these Wall Street wiseguys play from right up close. I know the drill from my 55 years of paying attention. And I'm happy to share that experience with you, right here. 

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