There was very little change in cycle structures or projections on Friday. Some cycle projections have been hit. Others still point higher. Will the market party on?
Cycle screening data weakened on Monday, but the drop was modest. The aggregate indicator slipped to a new low for the past week, creating a downturn from a negative divergence versus the S&P. This would typically be a minor trend top pattern, but the number remains very strong.
Cycle screening data strengthened slightly on Friday. The aggregate indicator rose, but still not enough to clear the high set on February 22, maintaining a negative divergence versus the S&P. A down day now would complete a minor trend top pattern. Overall, 5 measures lost ground, an underlying non confirmation which bucked the aggregate number.
The market’s slight pullback on Friday left cycle projections still mostly pointed a little higher while time counts suggest that time has about run out on the rally.
Cycle screening measures were mixed with a slight tilt to the sell side on Friday. But the patterns say something else.
The stock market closed nearly unchanged on Friday. Here’s what it means in the current context.
Cycle screening measures surged along with the market averages on Friday. All 9 measures gained ground as did the aggregate measure. However, 6 of the 9 measures remained on the sell side on balance and the rebound in the aggregate measure left it still deep in negative territory. It sounds messy but the message was…
The market averages made a picture perfect double bottom about 4 weeks apart. The bots bought. The media found a perfect reason du jour for the action, and so off they went. It looks good but…
Cycle screening measures weakened on Friday. That weakness was not as pronounced as the weakness in the market averages, but it was sufficient to turn the short term pattern bearish, with the potential for extreme bearish signals.
The market fell sharply in reaction to a weaker than expected (by everybody except us) nonfarm payrolls number. The 4 week cycle is now in a confirmed down phase. A 13 week cycle top was due in the February time slot, and indicators are on the verge of confirming. But a couple of last ditch…