Macro Liquidity Pro Trader

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Bubble Trouble At US Banks

Money supply maintained its rapid growth in October, with the annual growth rate rising to 8%, the fastest growth since a brief surge at the end of 2012. This suggests bubble dynamics are at work. The Fed hasn’t tightened yet. Speculative behavior has been raging. Speculative lending is growing rapidly. This is unhealthy and will…

Macro Liquidity Still Rising But So Is Market Friction

The stock and bond rallies went flat in August and bonds sold off in September as heavy Treasury supply and foreign sovereign liquidation of Treasury holdings created friction in the markets. Liquidity growth has been slowing, and while overall liquidity is still rising, the market response to rising liquidity has been diminishing as friction builds.

Mario Borat Draghi’s “Great Success”- The European Banking System

The horror show of European banking system data just keeps getting worse. With Deutsche Bank now constantly in the headlines, it has the look and feel of impending doom, maybe worse than 2008-09. The biggest difference between then and now is that back then the financial markets had already plunged and central banks had yet…

Disaster In The European Banking System Exposed

Banks Fleeing Banks in Europe - Click to enlarge

ECB data on bank deposits for the Eurozone shows total bank deposits down sharply in July, breaking the uptrend in force since the low in 2014. That’s shocking considering that the ECB just boosted its money printing QE programs. Deposits should be rising steadily in concert with the amount of QE, not falling. But cash extinguishment and capital flight are increasing faster than the ECB can print.

Portents of a Big Problem In Worldwide Market Liquidity

The stock and bond rallies went flat in August as heavy Treasury supply created friction for increasing liquidity. There was also evidence that liquidity growth in Europe has stalled. In spite of massive ECB money printing, European bank deposits fell in July. That indicates not just capital flight, but cash extinguishment via loan repayments and…

Fed and Banking System Indicators Suggest Nothing Changed, But Europe Sucked

This post was miscategorized when first published on September 6. I am currently working on the update for September, which will be posted this weekend. There’s no imminent change in the air according to Fed and US banking system indicators, but deposits in Europe fell as the US sucks up capital and cash from the…

Central Bank Rigging and NIRP Drive US Financial Asset Price Inflation

Negative interest rate policy (NIRP) elsewhere in the world continues to drive liquidity growth and asset price inflation in US. We saw this trend coming when NIRP was first introduced. Now the question is whether the resulting US asset price inflation was an intended or unintended consequence of foreign central bank policy. Would it even…

Loans, Deposits, and Liquidity Still Growing Rapidly In US Banks as Europe Craters

The Fed’s balance sheet remains flat but US banking indicators continue to show rapid systemic growth in loans and deposits, and hence, liquidity, as NIRP and waning confidence drive cash out of Europe. This report is part of the Macroliquidity Pro service. An update on macro liquidity indicators will follow later this week.