Uptrend lines remained intact, with a tidal wave of cash from the Fed and Treasury hitting dealer accounts this week.
The market pulled a repeat command performance of December’s first day of the Fed’s mid month MBS purchase settlement period. It suggests another shakeout by the dealers who may need inventory before the next round of markups, but with investors having an excuse to buy bonds instead, this one could be a little more damaging…
Cycle screening measures continued strengthening on Friday, a trend which persisted all week
The market sits on the brink, but the brink of what? Technical indicators are vacillating and inconclusive. The price patterns could be a launch pad, or a gallows. The 10-12 month and 6 month cycle projections are back to pointing to 1870, but they’ve been swinging back and forth for days.
The market stalled, with neither enough impetus to forge upward, nor enough selling pressure to break minor support.
The market rallied exactly where it needed to, to prevent intermediate indications from possibly turning bearish.
Technical indicators continued to weaken today while the market averages had small pullbacks. Some short term cycle screening measures are at or near downside extremes which argues for at least a short term pop beginning Tuesday or Wednesday. Intermediate indicators are on the cusp of sell signals and the 6 month cycle projection has dropped…
There have been short term cycle sell signals over the past few days, and weakness in cycle screening measures, but 6 month and 10-12 month cycle indicators on the market averages haven’t flashed sell signals.
This report looks at the action of the last couple of days, with the evidence pointing to just another shakeout, and a possible final cyclical bull market high to come in the second quarter of 2014.
The Professional Edition Market Update and Precious Metals Update will not be published on December 31 or January 1. They will return to a regular posting schedule on January 2. The Fed and Treasury updates will also be posted over the weekend and early next week. The December 30 market update has been posted. Happy…