Cycle screening measures strengthened modestly again. The aggregate measure broke the downtrend of the past few weeks but it has not yet reached positive territory. The cumulative indicator remains on the cusp.
Today’s action changed nothing technically as the market attempted a breakout and then settled back to the breakout line.
While cycle screening measures strengthened enough for short term buy signals, the upticks were not sufficient to signal that the 13 week and 6 month cycles have returned to the upside in a second wind rally.
The market held at the convergence of several support lines at 1980 and bounced hard from there, but ran into resistance at the first set of trend resistance lines around 2000.
The sense of heaviness that I reported earlier showed up clearly in the cycle screening data.
The market threatened to break down, and as I listened to Bloomberg today in the car today it “sounded” heavy, with repeated attempts at flotation sinking back. There’s a clear line in the sand, below which traders may sell first and ask questions later. This report shows where that is along with other indicator keys.
In the course of hastily posting this report, I posted it under the wrong Category heading originally. Thanks to subscriber Cliff for bringing this to my attention. This report is part 2 of the daily market update. There will be no Treasury update, and this report was not a Fed Report but I will post a Fed Report as soon as possible after the FOMC announcement. I am back at home base in Florida and I will resume the regular publication schedule this evening. Thank you for your patience and support. – Lee
The market has created a setup that looks like late July, but it must cross a trigger point. A very different outcome would be likely if it doesn’t.
A key 13 week cycle indicator strengthened today, and short term cycles have reached a pivotal point. Here are the keys to the outlook.
The market averages rebounded, but cycle screening data did not, held back by built in lag. Most of these measures are tilted to the sell side, with the aggregate measure also tilted to the sell side and continuing to slowly weaken.