Support held where it had to, to stop a meltdown, giving the bulls at least a toehold to get something going. Cycle projections firmed up. Essentially all projections up to 13 weeks have been hit or virtually hit and some short term cycles are due for lows at any time. But…
The market threw a party to welcome Janet Yellen as Fed Chair. Only bears were invited. All indications are that they’ll be making their presence felt for months to come.
Technical non confirmations of Friday’s selloff sets up a stock market Super Bowl of sorts on Monday as the market again tests critical support. This report handicaps the game, evaluating the two teams and showing how the battle lines shape up.
The market built on Wednesday’s improving cycle screens by blasting off from a key support level. There are signs that a short term bottom has formed but …
Stocks sold off and broad market indicators weakened, but cycle screening measures were modestly stronger. That behavior suggests that a short term market bottom is at hand, but if key support lines break, look out below.
The market did what it needed to do by holding at support, thereby preventing a potential waterfall decline. However, it only did the minimum.
Cycle screening measures reached a parameter normally associated with short term or intermediate bottoms, joining a preliminary intermediate buy signal on the VIX. However, cycle oscillators on the broad market averages for periods up to 6 months are all on the sell side.
The question in most investors’ minds is probably whether Friday was the beginning of the end of the bull market. Here’s my answer.
The bulls fumbled and the bears recovered today, but they could not score as the bulls made a goal line stand in the final hour, protecting trend support around 1825. That is, in effect, the goal line for the bears.
Stocks marked time again today, but there were hints that this is moving toward an upside resolution. The 6 month cycle projection is holding at 1870.