The market has created a setup that looks like late July, but it must cross a trigger point. A very different outcome would be likely if it doesn’t.
A key 13 week cycle indicator strengthened today, and short term cycles have reached a pivotal point. Here are the keys to the outlook.
The market averages rebounded, but cycle screening data did not, held back by built in lag. Most of these measures are tilted to the sell side, with the aggregate measure also tilted to the sell side and continuing to slowly weaken.
Manna from the Fed arrives on Thursday in the form of the start of the Fed’s regular monthly MBS purchase settlements. Will that be sufficient to give stocks a boost in the second half of September? Here’s what the technical picture says about it.
Cycle screening measures were weaker today, but stopped short of a clear signal.
The market weakened enough to give the bears a toehold. Short term cycles are now in gear. The bigger issue is what the intermediate indicators portend.
Cycle screening data was mixed as the market fell back to the middle of the narrow short term trading range, reaffirming the two week status quo. The data was a tad stronger than the market. What’s that supposed to mean?
The SPX has been stuck in a tiny trading range of 1990-2010 for two weeks, and the indicators are giving no hint of when it will break out, or which way. Cycle projections still point higher, however. What should we make of that?
Cycle screening data strengthened as the market averages pushed the upper boundary of the narrow short term trading range. Will the market break out Monday?
The market has positioned itself for a breakout from the recent trading range. Cycle projections suggest it will happen, with significantly higher targets on some key cycles.