Down phases on cycles up to 13 weeks grew weaker, but a test of support and cycle projections around 2050 held. Here are the benchmarks to watch for the keys to whether the bears again take control of the market’s direction.
Cycle screening data weakened on Thursday. 8 of the 9 measures weakened. The aggregate measure fell back into negative territory after just touching its declining 29 day MA. This makes another lower high in a series going back to early March. The cumulative line also downticked and is on the verge of breaking the 29…
The customary Fed policy resubstantiation rally did not materialize. The market broke trend support but faces more.
Cycle screening data strengthened modestly on Wednesday. 6 of the 9 measures strengthened. The aggregate measure upticked to reach positive territory again after staying above the 3 month uptrend line.
Today was surprisingly weak for Fed policy resubstantiation day. The real post FOMC rally often holds off till Thursday.
Cycle screening data strengthened marginally on Tuesday. 6 of the 9 measures strengthened. The aggregate measure upticked but stayed in negative territory. It was above the 3 month uptrend line but below the declining 29 day MA.
Indicators for cycles up to 13 weeks have mostly edged to the sell side which primes the market for a negative reaction to the Fed.
Cycle screening data weakened on Monday. All 9 measures weakened. The aggregate measure fell into negative territory as it stayed below the declining 29 day MA. The cumulative measure downticked in a move that, in terms of both structure and timing, is very similar to the downtick in the midst of the November top.
The market again rebounded to the uptrend line after breaking the lower limit of the channel early in the session. It would now need to close below 2090 to break the channel and suggest a probable 6 month cycle top.
Cycle screening data weakened on Friday but the cumulative line surpassed the December peak. That is significant.