Lee Adler

I’ve been publishing The Wall Street Examiner and its predecessor since October 2000. I also provide analysis and charts for David Stockman's Contra Corner which I developed for Mr. Stockman. I’ve had a wide variety of finance related jobs in the past 44 years, including a stint on Wall Street in both analytical and sales capacities. Prior to starting the Wall Street Examiner I worked as a commercial real estate appraiser in Florida for 15 years. I also worked in the residential mortgage and real estate businesses in parts of the 1970s and 80s. I have been charting stocks and markets and doing analytical work since I was a teenager. My perspective is not of the Ivory Tower. It is from having my boots on the ground and in the trenches of the industries that I analyze and write about today.

BREAKING: Treasury’s Latest Move and a LAMPP Update

Fed and Treasury actions this week will help to keep the Liquidity and Monetary Policy Profit indicator (LAMPP) from dropping into red territory this week. The long term LAMPP will remain Green, while the short to intermediate term LAMPPs will remain Yellow.

The Treasury has scheduled net new supply of just $5 billion in debt, an amount that the market typically absorbs easily.

Meanwhile the market gets its mid-month shot in the arm from the Fed’s regular monthly settlement of its purchases of MBS that it buys under forward contracts. These purchases replace the MBS that are paid down every month as mortgage borrowers regularly pay off mortgages each month. The Fed will settle purchases totaling $23.98 billion during the August 14-21 period.

Continue reading…

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The Media Doesn’t Work For You: Here’s What They Aren’t Saying

When you read the economic news releases in the mainstream media, you probably wonder what the real story is behind the headlines. And if you don’t, you should.

All too often, sources like the Wall Street Journal, or CNBC, or any financial media outfit aren’t telling you the truth.

Sometimes the truth isn’t obvious because of the way the media reports the numbers, usually ignoring the actual raw data for the universally followed and seasonally adjusted (manipulated) data. That’s just one problem.

But there’s a bigger problem that causes facts to become twisted and headlines to become lies

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Market Breaks A Key Trend- More To Come

The market broke short and intermediate term trend support last week. This is a critical moment in market history. It behooves us to understand and pay attention to technical analysis now more than ever. It could mean the difference between whether your investments survive or not! This report tells you what last week’s market turnabout…

Here’s How Europe Will Help Crash U.S. Stock Markets This Fall

There’s something going on in Europe that you need to know about. It could directly impact your portfolio, not in a good way. And no one else is telling you about it. Here’s what you need to know to protect your assets, and profit on the short side.

Unlike Vegas, what happens in Europe doesn’t stay in Europe. In fact, European banks and investors play a huge role in US markets. This is nothing new.  After all, it was European investors who financed the exploration of the New World. French money helped finance the American Revolution. And so on.

While Europeans don’t play nearly as large a role in US markets as the Fed does, at the margin their participation is critical to the direction of the US Treasury market. And as the money used to purchase Treasuries passes into US dealer accounts it then has an impact on stock prices as well.

Bottom line: European money directly influences the bond market, and indirectly influences the stock market. And if they start pulling their cash out of our system…then what’s good for Europe could be very bad for the U.S.

In fact, it could help trigger a massive stock market crash this fall. Here’s how.

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Get Ready for These Bearish Liquidity Trades Today

For now, the long term LAMPP is still a green light. But the intermediate LAMPP is yellow. Given the Fed’s recent statements that it is about to shrink its balance sheet, it won’t be long before both LAMPPs turn red. 

That means we’ll be looking at a number of bearish opportunities soon…

First, let me tell you why we’re seeing these green and yellow signals now – where the red is coming from – and then how to profit

The post Get Ready for These Bearish Liquidity Trades Today appeared first on Sure Money.

Market Chicken, Waffles

While the Dow plowed to new highs, the broader market went nowhere. There were signs of technical deterioration. Here’s how trends and cycles set up, and what to do about it. Market Update Pro subscribers click here to download the complete market update, including the proprietary cycle screens report in pdf format. Not yet a subscriber? Try…