Lee Adler

I’ve been publishing The Wall Street Examiner and its predecessor since October 2000. I also provide analysis and charts for David Stockman's Contra Corner which I developed for Mr. Stockman. I’ve had a wide variety of finance related jobs in the past 44 years, including a stint on Wall Street in both analytical and sales capacities. Prior to starting the Wall Street Examiner I worked as a commercial real estate appraiser in Florida for 15 years. I also worked in the residential mortgage and real estate businesses in parts of the 1970s and 80s. I have been charting stocks and markets and doing analytical work since I was a teenager. My perspective is not of the Ivory Tower. It is from having my boots on the ground and in the trenches of the industries that I analyze and write about today.

Go Short Again At 2800 (Thanks to This Horrifying Story)

You can follow my analysis of the government’s real time tax data on at the beginning of every month in The Wall Street Examiner Pro Trader Federal Revenues Report.  This report is chock full of charts that clearly illustrate the current trends before the economic news hits the headlines.   

The real reason to track tax data isn’t to tell us what the economy is doing. It’s for supporting data for the TBAC’s Treasury supply forecasts upon which we rely so heavily. While Wall Street is busy focusing only on demand for investment paper, it forgets the other half of the Law of Supply and Demand.  We don’t. I cover both the demand and supply side.

The biggest supplier of investment paper to the markets is of course the US Government. So we pay close attention to how much supply it is scheduled to bring to market every month, and relate that to the prices of financial assets-stocks and bonds.

Bloomberg reports: “Trouble is brewing.”

All investments compete with US Government paper for their share of the pool of money available for investment. Investors and dealers must choose between asset classes all the time. Liquidity and investment preferences are constantly shifting. But one thing is constant in the current environment. The Fed is removing money from the system at an increasing pace. The liquidity pool isn’t growing any more, and soon it will start shrinking outright.

So while investors may choose stocks over other asset classes at any given time, such as recent weeks, the more Treasuries that come to market, the more money they will suck out of a stagnant pool. And as the Fed increases its draining operations, and the Fed’s two big cohorts-the ECB and BoJ-cut back on their QE programs, that pool of money will even start to shrink.

The current supply data is horrifying and it won’t get better any time for the foreseeable future.

The post Go Short Again At 2800 (Thanks to This Horrifying Story) appeared first on Lee Adler’s Sure Money.

The Noose Tightens

The Treasury ramped up its pounding of the markets over the past month, and there’s no respite on the horizon. At the same time, the Fed is pulling money out of the system, with an increase in the rate of withdrawal scheduled for July. So the noose is tightening and the hangman stands ready.

How to Decode The “Mixed Signals” in Stocks, Gold, and Oil This Week

The stock market looks like it wants to break out. Gold looks like it wants to break down. The European banking system remains on the brink of disaster. And US Federal tax collections fell out of bed in May. 

Is there a common thread that runs through all that? And if so, what does it mean for your money?

The short answer is, “No,” but we can draw inferences from observing each set of data.

And by way of a spoiler alert, even the data that looks bullish at first likely has a deeper story to tell.

The post How to Decode The “Mixed Signals” in Stocks, Gold, and Oil This Week appeared first on Lee Adler’s Sure Money.

Weekly Bear: We’re Cautiously Optimistic on Gold…

As you know, I’m not a gold bug, but I respect those who are, and I track the yellow metal weekly in the Wall Street Examiner Pro Trader Precious Metals service. Lately, my outlook is cautiously optimistic.

Here’s a glimpse into a few of the highlights from my latest issue (May 29).

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