Yesterday, I posted this report with the intro from the June report. This version corrects that error. I apologize for the confusion! Click here to…
In the world of assets classes, I don’t believe it is equities which hold the Federal Reserve’s attention. After the 2006-11 debacle, the big bust, you can at least understand why policymakers might be more attuned to real estate no matter how the NYSE trades. It may be a decade ago, but that’s the one […]
With the lifting of the debt ceiling the market’s tailwind is about to change direction. A gale force wind will blow the other way. Click…
Greatest economy ever according to the presidential talking points, new market highs in July, free money just around the corner with every central bank looking to cut rates because greatest economy ever. […]
Jeff Snider gives us an important history of the insanity of the Fed pretending to control the Fed Funds rate. On this point he and I agree. “It was less about money, nothing about money, really, and mostly about communications.”
Things were going wrong and afterward the very idea of wrong took on an even more disastrous nature.
Tech making new highs again in July as markets are anticipating rate cuts from the Fed later in the month. It’s still early in the earning season, but about to get heavy […]
Gold and the miners continue to consolidate. I’m recommending selling one of our mining picks but holding the rest. This report covers the short to…
Avalon | We caused a bit of a fuss last week on CNBC by suggesting that the Federal Open Market Committee will not cut the target for Fed funds this month. We suggested instead that the Federal Reserve Board will first end the runoff of the System Open Market Account (SOMA) and then “wait and see” about any change in the rate target. Readers of The Institutional Risk Analyst know that we tend not to follow the crowd, especially when the data suggests that the narrative is at odds with actual
Even the most distracted, fragmented tribe of the peasantry eventually notices that they’re not in the top 1%, or the top 0.1%.Let’s posit that America will confront a Great Crisis in the next decade. This is the presumption of The Fourth Tur…