The dealers got a windfall from the Fed over the past couple of days. They used that to foment a rally in stocks. But it has been kind of puny relative to what we’ve gotten used to in recent weeks. And it looks suspiciously like a potential right shoulder of a head and shoulders top pattern on the hourly chart.
Of course, wishful thinking will kill you as a trader, and seeing a potential right shoulder is wishful thinking.
The Fed gives Primary Dealers money every day now. The dealers use that money to buy Treasury paper from Uncle Sam. Whatever the dealers don’t need for that purpose, they use to create mischief in the financial markets. You really need to know how much money they’re getting, how much they need, and how much mischief is coming as a result, every day. I’m happy to help you get that information.
The Fed has taken its foot off the gas pedal. We’ve been watching this for a couple of weeks now. Crunch time is almost here.…
A crucial component of many commodity futures markets is a concept called roll yield. It relates to the shape of the curve and therefore how the market is discounting the three fundamental factors of supply, demand, and financing. Contango versus backwardation, there’s a lot to consider and even more at stake.Back in late October 2018, […]
There used to be enough to absorb the pounding of daily gargantuan Treasury paper issuance, but $15 billion a day is way short of enough. We saw the results in the stock market yesterday. Something has to be liquidated to raise the money to pay for all that nice shiny new Treasury debt toilet paper that everybody wants but nobody can pay for.
What does it mean, then, that the futures are up overnight.
Monetary policy can be implemented through outright purchases or sales of securities, which permanently changes the size of the Federal Reserve’s System Open Market Account (SOMA) portfolio.
Pulling the sleeve down to hide the tracks doesn’t mean the addict is cured.Just for a change of pace, can we be bluntly honest about the U.S. economy? It’s difficult to do because we’ve chosen to ignore all the realities, much like a family that …
The timeline for recovery in the oil market was obviously overly optimistic. Markets now have to price in something that takes longer
History as well as common sense dictates heavy caution when it comes to the monetary puppet show.
The ES futures have broken the uptrend line from the March low. Is it healthy or ominous?
