The Fed has taken its foot off the gas pedal. We’ve been watching this for a couple of weeks now. Crunch time is almost here.…
A crucial component of many commodity futures markets is a concept called roll yield. It relates to the shape of the curve and therefore how the market is discounting the three fundamental factors of supply, demand, and financing. Contango versus backwardation, there’s a lot to consider and even more at stake.Back in late October 2018, […]
There used to be enough to absorb the pounding of daily gargantuan Treasury paper issuance, but $15 billion a day is way short of enough. We saw the results in the stock market yesterday. Something has to be liquidated to raise the money to pay for all that nice shiny new Treasury debt toilet paper that everybody wants but nobody can pay for.
What does it mean, then, that the futures are up overnight.
Monetary policy can be implemented through outright purchases or sales of securities, which permanently changes the size of the Federal Reserve’s System Open Market Account (SOMA) portfolio.
Pulling the sleeve down to hide the tracks doesn’t mean the addict is cured.Just for a change of pace, can we be bluntly honest about the U.S. economy? It’s difficult to do because we’ve chosen to ignore all the realities, much like a family that …
The timeline for recovery in the oil market was obviously overly optimistic. Markets now have to price in something that takes longer
History as well as common sense dictates heavy caution when it comes to the monetary puppet show.
The ES futures have broken the uptrend line from the March low. Is it healthy or ominous?
Gold has pulled back after breaking out of its trend channel. That’s usually a sign of a top. Now what?
Sadly, as markets stall and crash, participants will still be in their seats thinking all is well.The tragic 2009 crash of Air France Flight 447 offers an apt analogy ..