The world was late in a historic Bubble period prior to COVID. Whether in the markets, real economies, politics or geopolitics, Bubble Dynamics play a profound role. Understanding that enables us to foresee what comes next.
The Chinese are well past their trough, so there may be some meaningful interpretations for us to take from their data. Exercise caution…
The auto industry is in total shutdown. Here’s why it won’t recover.
The numbers continue to improve for the COVID19 epicenter in the Northeast. The following chart looks at the numbers on a week to week basis…
“The very numbers you use in counting are more than you take them for. They are at the same time mythological entities (for the Pythagoreans…
Treasury issuance has caught up with QE. There are no more excess funds lying around for dealers to use to mark up stock and bond prices. The balance has shifted. It’s not as bullish as it was, that’s for sure. And it could get much, much worse in the weeks ahead before the Fed reacts.
Monetary policy can be implemented through outright purchases or sales of securities, which permanently changes the size of the Federal Reserve’s System Open Market Account (SOMA) portfolio.
Financialization was never sustainable, and neither was the destructive globalization it enabled.All the happy-story analogies to past pandemics being mere bumps in the road miss the mark. A popular claim is that the 1918-1919 flu pandemic killed …
CUSIP: 912810SR0Term and Type: 20-Year BondReopening: No Offering Amount: 20 Billion Auction Date: 05/20/2020 Issue Date: 06/01/2020
In normal times, the Federal Government has a revenue windfall in April, and runs a large surplus for the month. Revenues are typically at least 140% of outlays. Even more in good years.
Revenues covered just 24% of outlays in April. We borrowed 76 cents of every dollar the Federal Government spent last month.
We knew this was coming. The questions now are how long it can last, when it will start to recover, and whether it might get worse.