Technical Trader

Weekly stock market update featuring Lee Adler’s proprietary cycle analysis, price and time projections and SPY put and call trading recommendations.  Click here to subscribe. Now published at Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader.

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Stock Market Rides the Razor’s Edge

The longer intermediate cycles say that the market is heading much higher. Shorter cycles point to more limited upside.  But the whole shebang is fragile as hell. Here’s what to look for, along with some interesting chart picks on both the long and short side. Follow the money. Find the profits!Liquidity is money. Regardless of…

Short in the Short Run, Long in the Longer

Short term cycles are in down phases. There are a couple of clear parameters to watch for signs of whether this will get worse or not. Intermediate cycles appear to be topping out. Again, there are clear parameters to watch for confirmation.

But the long term indications remain bullish, with a brand new price and time projection for the bull market high. It won’t make bears happy, but our chart picks still have 4 shorts along with 7 longs. The bull is no longer a monolith, but it only takes a few big stocks to carry the market averages higher.

Bulls Come Back to Work

The long holiday weekend has ended and bulls are back at their desks.

Bullish on Biden’s growing lead in the polls, right? Because when the market was going down 2 weeks ago, the papers said that was because the market feared Biden. I guess traders switched sides, because the charts sure look bullish again all of a sudden.

Wow.

Here’s what to look for to signal that this is for real. Along with a few ideas on how to ride it.

Wild, Woolly, Illiquid

Last week was wild and wooly. The volatility suggests illiquidity, which at this stage is not bullish. It’s consistent with the idea I’ve espoused in Liquidity Trader reports that the Fed not supplying sufficient liquidity to support an uptrend.

But the technical stuff says, “Ay! Not so fast!”

Sunday Night Massacre

By early Monday morning, the ES futures were trading at 2966, and had traded as low as 2925. 2950 is now critical support. If New York fails to hold that, then the market would be in crash mode again. What would the target of that be? And what if 2950 holds? Is it still bearish?