Even before COVID-19 the trend was clear that the Treasury would need to keep borrowing money hand over fist. Now the deficit will explode. This is a hideous problem for financial markets in this condition.
Suddenly the trend of Federal Withholding tax collections is in critical condition. Subscribers, click here to download the report. Get this report and access to…
UPDATE- A few minor corrections. Federal revenues soared in January. Spending soared more. A lot more. Despite all that stimulus, the tax data suggests that…
Withholding tax collections are soaring. But despite that and the massive stimulus of skyrocketing government outlays and ever widening deficits, the ‘conomy is only so-so. Here’s why, what it means for liquidity and the markets. And of course, what you should do about it.
Federal revenues softened in December. That could be just a blip, or it could be the first signs of a looming recession. It’s bullish if…
Federal tax collections were a bit softer in December than in recent months, but overall were in the same growth path as throughout the past year. That signals that the US economy isn’t doing much differently than the pace it has been for the past several years. Here’s why that’s still bad news, and what you should do about it.
Federal tax collections were robust in November, signaling that the US economy is perking along. That has implications for the Treasury supply outlook, and consequently…
Federal revenues fell in October for the first time since February. And outlays rose, widening the deficit. The Fed raised its ante in response. Here’s what this means and what you should do about it.
The US Treasury daily tax data suggests that the US economy is at least slowing. That means already yooge deficits will grow. Treasury supply will…
Net new Treasury supply is receding to the “new normal,” averaging around $100 billion per month. We know we have a problem when a hundred…