Liquidity Trader – US Government Revenues

Analysis of real time Federal revenues as they signal economic activity and likely changes in Treasury supply. Resulting market strategy recommendations. 8 reports each month. Click here to subscribe. Now published at Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader.

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Infinite QE Is Coming Despite Skyrocketing Economic Growth

Last month, I headlined this report, “We Don’t Need No Effin’ Stimmy.” That’s even more true now. Withholding tax collections are skyrocketing. It’s good news for the economy, but terrible news for the financial markets. We are only days away from Infinite QE. Here’s how we know, and why it won’t be bullish this time.…

The Stimulus “Magic Bullet” Is Bearish

Withholding tax collections were relatively stable through November. But the 5 day average ticked a hair below November’s low here in early December. New lows would suggest that December’s jobs data will be awful, which will add to the likelihood of more stimulus, both fiscal and monetary. Whether that’s bullish or not depends on the Fed. The wrong fiscal/monetary balance could ignite a conflagration.

Disjointed Economy Points To Bad Things

Last week I was surprised when the US Government’s retail sales data hit a new high. No way, I said.

Well, Way!

Yes, some retailers are seeing booming sales, particularly online, and … wait for it…

Grocery stores. Even after pulling back from the lockdown spike, they’re still up more than 7% year to year.

Now there’s a basis for a thriving, growing US economy.

Not.