The risks are astronomical despite improved tax collections. Follow the money. Find the profits!Liquidity is money. Regardless of where in the world that money originates, eventually it flows to and through Wall Street. So if you want to know the direction of the next big moves in stocks and bonds, just follow the money. Lee…
Liquidity Trader – US Government Revenues
Analysis of real time Federal revenues as they signal economic activity and likely changes in Treasury supply. Resulting market strategy recommendations. 8 reports each month. Click here to subscribe. Now published at Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader.
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Liquidity Trader - US Government Revenues, Liquidity Trader - US Treasury Market Trend Supply and Demand
The Stimulus “Magic Bullet” Is Bearish
by Lee Adler • • 0 Comments
Withholding tax collections were relatively stable through November. But the 5 day average ticked a hair below November’s low here in early December. New lows would suggest that December’s jobs data will be awful, which will add to the likelihood of more stimulus, both fiscal and monetary. Whether that’s bullish or not depends on the Fed. The wrong fiscal/monetary balance could ignite a conflagration.
Liquidity Trader - US Government Revenues, Liquidity Trader - US Treasury Market Trend Supply and Demand
The Passion of Jaysus
by Lee Adler • • 0 Comments
Jay Powell’s first order of business is to keep the bond market from breaking down. When the 10 year yield hit 0.975 last week before backing off, the market was at the edge of the abyss. Leveraged dealer bond portfolios were on the brink of disaster.
Liquidity Trader - US Government Revenues, Liquidity Trader - US Treasury Market Trend Supply and Demand
Real Time Tax Collection Data Supports Jobs Report
by Lee Adler • • 0 Comments
Tax collections improved in October, but are still well below pre-pandemic levels. The US may look like it’s recovering, but it’s still in the hole it dug when Covid19 first hit. That means that Fed policy isn’t likely to change any time soon.
Liquidity Trader - US Government Revenues, Liquidity Trader - US Treasury Market Trend Supply and Demand
Disjointed Economy Points To Bad Things
by Lee Adler • • 0 Comments
Last week I was surprised when the US Government’s retail sales data hit a new high. No way, I said.
Well, Way!
Yes, some retailers are seeing booming sales, particularly online, and … wait for it…
Grocery stores. Even after pulling back from the lockdown spike, they’re still up more than 7% year to year.
Now there’s a basis for a thriving, growing US economy.
Not.
Liquidity Trader - US Government Revenues
Federal Tax Collections Now Say Damned If They Do, or if They Don’t
by Lee Adler • • 0 Comments
Tax collections have leveled off at a negative year to year rate. The Fed has gone to Congress begging for fiscal support for the US economy, as a result. Without a deal to raise spending, the economy will continue to languish, and the Fed will continue to print money to support the markets. Follow the…
Liquidity Trader - US Government Revenues
August Federal Deficit Decline is Worse Than It Looks
by Lee Adler • • 0 Comments
Tax collections have leveled off at a negative year to year rate. That will allow the Fed to continue to paper things over at the current level of support it is providing. Here’s what it means for stocks and bonds, not to mention the US economy.
Liquidity Trader - US Government Revenues
Gargantuan Deficits Will Shrink, But It’s Not Good News
by Lee Adler • • 0 Comments
By now, you’ve heard all about the $2.8 trillion budget deficit so far this year.
Old news. With more pandemic spending on hold, the monthly deficits will shrink. Good news, bad news. Here’s why.
Liquidity Trader - US Government Revenues
Don’t Be Fooled by Things That Look Good Now
by Lee Adler • • 0 Comments
The Treasury’s numbers for June were as bad as expected. Early July numbers look good, but it’s a trick. Here’s how we know, and what that means for the markets.
Liquidity Trader - US Government Revenues
June Swoon
by Lee Adler • • 0 Comments
The Treasury’s numbers are in for June and they’re not good. First things first. The BLS jobs data is just BS.
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