Analysis of real time Federal revenues as they signal economic activity and likely changes in Treasury supply. Resulting market strategy recommendations. 8 reports each month. Click here to subscribe. Now published at Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader.
Last week I was surprised when the US Government’s retail sales data hit a new high. No way, I said.
Well, Way!
Yes, some retailers are seeing booming sales, particularly online, and … wait for it…
Grocery stores. Even after pulling back from the lockdown spike, they’re still up more than 7% year to year.
Now there’s a basis for a thriving, growing US economy.
Not.
Tax collections have leveled off at a negative year to year rate. The Fed has gone to Congress begging for fiscal support for the US economy, as a result. Without a deal to raise spending, the economy will continue to languish, and the Fed will continue to print money to support the markets. Follow the…
Tax collections have leveled off at a negative year to year rate. That will allow the Fed to continue to paper things over at the current level of support it is providing. Here’s what it means for stocks and bonds, not to mention the US economy.
By now, you’ve heard all about the $2.8 trillion budget deficit so far this year.
Old news. With more pandemic spending on hold, the monthly deficits will shrink. Good news, bad news. Here’s why.
The Treasury’s numbers for June were as bad as expected. Early July numbers look good, but it’s a trick. Here’s how we know, and what that means for the markets.
The Treasury’s numbers are in for June and they’re not good. First things first. The BLS jobs data is just BS.
Subscribers, click here to download the report.
Common sense says that as case numbers increase, tax collections would fall and vice versa, REGARDLESS of whether governments imposed lockdowns. So my expectation was that as governors across the country lifted restrictions, case numbers would rise, and tax collections would fall.
Well here we are.
This data tells us exactly what the big picture is right now, while Wall Street economists are still scratching their asses and trying to figure out what the government statistician manipulated data will be and will mean. And the first report from that government data is still 13 days away.
The Monthly Treasury Statement for May confirms that the economy rebounded during the month, but more recent data through last week suggests that the rebound has already expired. Signs of renewed weakness come when the numbers are still far from a full recovery. The economy is beginning to weaken again, starting from weakness.
That’s relevant because it means that the Federal government will need to continue to issue massive amounts of debt. It may not be quite as much as in March and April, but it will still be at least double past peak levels.
We also know that the Fed has sharply cut the amount of that debt that it is directly absorbing or financing.
Here’s what this means for your investing strategy.
To the degree that it’s true, the idea that the US economy is recovering is a catastrophic notion for the financial markets. Follow the money. Find the profits!Liquidity is money. Regardless of where in the world that money originates, eventually it flows to and through Wall Street. So if you want to know the direction…
