Last month, I headlined this report, “We Don’t Need No Effin’ Stimmy.” That’s even more true now. Withholding tax collections are skyrocketing. It’s good news for the economy, but terrible news for the financial markets. We are only days away from Infinite QE. Here’s how we know, and why it won’t be bullish this time.…
Withholding tax collections have exploded upward over the past month through February 3. Other date confirm the strengthening. Here’s what this means for portfolio strategy and trading tactics.
The risks are astronomical despite improved tax collections. Subscribers, click here to download the report. Available at this link for legacy Treasury subscribers. KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality!
Withholding tax collections were relatively stable through November. But the 5 day average ticked a hair below November’s low here in early December. New lows would suggest that December’s jobs data will be awful, which will add to the likelihood of more stimulus, both fiscal and monetary. Whether that’s bullish or not depends on the Fed. The wrong fiscal/monetary balance could ignite a conflagration.
Jay Powell’s first order of business is to keep the bond market from breaking down. When the 10 year yield hit 0.975 last week before backing off, the market was at the edge of the abyss. Leveraged dealer bond portfolios were on the brink of disaster.
Tax collections improved in October, but are still well below pre-pandemic levels. The US may look like it’s recovering, but it’s still in the hole it dug when Covid19 first hit. That means that Fed policy isn’t likely to change any time soon.
Last week I was surprised when the US Government’s retail sales data hit a new high. No way, I said.
Yes, some retailers are seeing booming sales, particularly online, and … wait for it…
Grocery stores. Even after pulling back from the lockdown spike, they’re still up more than 7% year to year.
Now there’s a basis for a thriving, growing US economy.
Tax collections have leveled off at a negative year to year rate. The Fed has gone to Congress begging for fiscal support for the US economy, as a result. Without a deal to raise spending, the economy will continue to languish, and the Fed will continue to print money to support the markets. Ironically, if…
Tax collections have leveled off at a negative year to year rate. That will allow the Fed to continue to paper things over at the current level of support it is providing. Here’s what it means for stocks and bonds, not to mention the US economy.
By now, you’ve heard all about the $2.8 trillion budget deficit so far this year.
Old news. With more pandemic spending on hold, the monthly deficits will shrink. Good news, bad news. Here’s why.