Macro liquidity is growing at a historically rapid pace, but much slower than in the second quarter. And there are signs of trouble brewing. Here’s what they are and what to do about them.
Fed QE and Treasury supply remain roughly in balance. The Fed is still funding most, if not all new issuance, either by direct purchase of…
The Fed doesn’t know what it will do until it does it, neither does the market. And it’s likely to take the market longer to figure it out than it takes us, if we’re paying attention. Which we are.
Here’s what we know and what to do about it.
The Treasury’s numbers for June were as bad as expected. Early July numbers look good, but it’s a trick. Here’s how we know, and what that means for the markets.
Wall Street media shills have noted that the Fed’s balance sheet has shrunken a bit in recent weeks. Let’s get this out of the way…
The Meyer Lansky like Fed has cut back QE, but Treasury supply has also receded. So the Fed is still funding most new issuance, either…
As the Fed has cut back on QE, Primary Dealers have also cut back their inventories of Treasuries and the leverage that they use to finance them. That’s not bullish. Here are the details and a few charts along with a suggested strategy to play the dealers’ game, not the one they want you to play as they set up new traders for the kill.
The Treasury’s numbers are in for June and they’re not good. First things first. The BLS jobs data is just BS.
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Common sense says that as case numbers increase, tax collections would fall and vice versa, REGARDLESS of whether governments imposed lockdowns. So my expectation was that as governors across the country lifted restrictions, case numbers would rise, and tax collections would fall.
Well here we are.
The imbalance between Fed QE and Treasury supply is ugly as as it gets for the next week, but then it gets less ugly. Here’s what you need to know and how you need to see it to trade successfully.
