Tax collections for March, and the month ended April 4, were so weak that they indicate that the US economy is now in recession. Non-subscribers,…
Bulletin: The US Treasury just announced another T-bill paydown. That brings the one week total, April 4-11, to $55 billion. That’s more than enough in…
The game has changed and there’s not even a pitch clock. But there is a bond market loss clock. Right now, it’s on a timeout.…
Last week I wrote that the Fed is playing a new game and nobody knew the rules. I felt like I needed a week to…
The Fed is playing a new game. The problem is that nobody knows what the rules are, not even the Fed. In fact, nobody even…
This was supposed to be the regular Composite Liquidity Update, but we have a slightly more pressing problem at hand for the opening of banks…
It’s that time of the month again. The tax collections are complete for February so we know how the jobs market really did for the…
I received some great questions from Ken up in Canada. I want to use them as a jumping off point for trying a different, hopefully…
Yesterday, February 15, 2023, a day that will live in… nobody’s memory, the S&P 500 closed at 4147.60. It first notched that price on the…
The stock market rally has stuttered and stumbled over the past 9 days. We now know why and, knowing that, we can forecast what comes…
