The BLS reported a seasonally adjusted 20.5 million jobs lost in April and stocks rallied on the news. Wall Street loves both death and unemployment apparently.
The more deaths, the more the market rallies. Yesterday’s US COVID 19 death toll was 2,528, the highest since April 21. The University of Washington model, which has been pretty accurate, now calls for 3,000 deaths a day in June as states reopen their economies.
Notice how the stock market correlates. Deaths have broken out. Will stocks follow?
A month ago the Fed was buying all new Treasury issuance and then some. Now it’s nowhere close to doing that. In recent days the Fed has been absorbing only around a fifth of new Treasury issuance. Is it enough?
So is the Fed doing enough to keep the short term bull trend going? Below is how it looks today.
Meanwhile, rogue elements of the Trump Regime, known as “doctors and epidemiologists,” are estimating a doubling of the COVID19 death toll in the weeks ahead as states try to reopen their economies. Stock futures are cheering on the predicted rise in the death toll.
Buy Death, the traders say!
The $3 trillion includes $1.37 trillion already borrowed in April. That implies additional borrowing of $1.63 trillion in May and June. May typically has light net new borrowing. May 2019 net borrowing totaled $67 billion.
The $3 trillion estimate is an increase of $3.06 trillion above the Treasury Department’s Q2 estimate that it posted in February.
See Liquidity Trader for ongoing in depth analysis and outlook.