From the NY Fed yesterday, plus what’s coming up.
The BLS provides seasonally adjusted (SA) data to make it impossible to see what actually happened in the first report each month. They do it to give economists and Wall Street mouthpieces something to do. Meanwhile, it’s much easier to see the truth with the actual not seasonally manipulated data (NSA).
Here are a few charts showing August data in the context of actual historical data NSA.
The Fed buys the paper from the Primary Dealers. The Fed pays for the purchases by depositing newly imagined money into the dealers accounts at the Fed. That money is then their cash to use for trading whatever they want. Here’s what happens next.
While I think that yesterday was a warning shot across the bow, I’m voting twice in favor of it being yet another BTFD moment. I’ll take a deeper look at the big picture in this weekend’s Technical Trader, which you can try risk free for 90 days if you are not now nor have ever been a member of our party.
Meanwhile, here’s the view for today.
August, September… What’s the difference. At least we got the 5 day cycle projection and then some. Now waiting for the next.
Is it any wonder? 5 day cycle projection 3575.
The thread looked busy yesterday, but it really wasn’t. It was just me chain posting out of sheer frustration. I promised not to do it again today. But there’s stuff.
Today’s scheduled purchase is an unusually large one for a single day. Here’s why, and why it could top out the market.