The purple line is the Fed’s System Open Market Account, in other words, its securities holdings. You see the Fed’s balance sheet normalization 2017-19, and then the return to massive QE in late 2019.
You can see it clearly on the hourly chart of the ES, S&P futures. The market has been cycling like clockwork every 3-4 days. Overnight they completed another downleg, exceeding the 5 day cycle projection of 4400 I posted at the close of regular tr…
Is that what this bottom is about to do? Hard to say. A 5 day cycle projection of 4450 on the ES S&P futures hourly chart is all but done. The chart looks set up for a bottom here. So if this low breaks, it’s likely to lead to drama on the high sea…
The Fed now says it will cut its assets by $95 billion per month. That will add that much to monthly new Treasury supply while…
5:45 AM ET. The 5 day cycle projection on this upswing of the ES S&P futures is 4520. Done! But the base breakout measures to 4539, so maybe we’re not done yet. Hourly indicators are inconclusive. An hourly close below 4500 would be needed for at l…
That’s on the hourly ES, S&P 500 futures chart.
It needs to clear 4496-4504 to really get anything going on the upside. Otherwise it’s a false alarm.
I’m traveling to Hyeres for the day today. Won’t be around until late this afternoon y…
Originally posted at Capitalstool. This chart illustrates the point that the Fed doesn’t set rates by waving a magic wand and saying, “Abracadabra, rates go…
On Wall Street, there’s no sun up in the sky, stormy weather.
Nice has a Mediterranean climate, nothing like Paris. Paris has real winters. In Nice, it’s mostly sunny throughout the winter with daytime highs typically in the 50s. When there’s a c…
That’s the 5 day cycle projection on the ES, S&P 500 futures, this morning at 10:30 AM in Western Europe, 4:30 AM, in New York, before the first traders are stirring their coffee. To get there, the bulls first must clear resistance indicated at 459…
Hey! I’m sorry, but writing headlines is harder than it looks sometimes, ok?
This is one of those times. So cut me some slack, ok? 😁
The chart picks were a bit more conclusive this weekend: Holding Longs, Adding Shorts. The intraday outlook…
