Politics doesn’t matter. There are two rules.
Short term cycles turned up on schedule, triggering the overdue upturn in the 6 month cycle. The 13 week cycle up phase got its expected second wind. All cycles from 4 weeks to 6 months are now in gear to the upside. The 4 week cycle currently projects to 3560. The 13 week cycle points higher–a lot higher.
At 6:30 AM in New York, the ES fucutures have spent the overnight hours pulling back, reaching key support at 3460. That also happens to be the 5 day cycle downside projection.
What happens next depends on whether this support level and target ho…
Straight from the blowing bowels of the NY Fed.
I can say only that I’m glad not to be in the US now. I’m doing my best to avoid consuming any news. Just make it stop, ok?
Meanwhile, Wall Street rolls and the clueless media invents a different excuse for it every 15 minutes.
Actually, over the very long term, it’s not bullish at all. But in the short run? Aye, there’s the rub.
There were some positive signs for gold last week and they are coming at just the right time.
Speaks for itself. 5 day cycle projection is 3365. The conventional measured move target of the inverse head and shoulders breakout is 3425-30
Or is it?
Click to engorge.
The hourly oscillators certainly suggest so. It’s a quite bullish pattern. To confirm, the ES fucutures need to clear 3335. That would break the last peak, and the downtrend channel.
The conventional me…
We’ve had two working theses over the past few months. One is that the Fed is no longer pumping enough cash into dealer accounts to keep an endless bull trend going. Instead, at best, there’s only enough for rotation between stocks and bonds.
The second thesis was that because dealers are so leveraged, any fall in bond prices, reflected in an increase in bond yields, would mean big trouble for the markets.