The good news is that the 9-12 month cycle projection no longer points toward 1700. The outlook will remain bullish if certain things happen this week and next.
In this Part 2 of the report, I cover the remaining interesting and important indicators that comprise the CLI. Each has its own story to tell, but they all lead to the same conclusion. Still bullish, and, unbelievably, one key component says that the stock market is oversold.
I find it difficult to wrap my head around that. But I won’t argue with it. If there’s one thing I’ve learned in 53 years of watching markets virtually every day, it’s not to argue with impartial indicators. They don’t care what I think should happen. They just show what is happening.
Well, doesn’t this look head and shouldery?
Cyclically, there’s no reason to get bearish here. Cycles of up to 6 months duration remain in gear to the upside. A 4 week cycle high is due now, but it won’t matter if the 6-8 week cycle is dominant. Here are the price targets and theoretical timing of these expected moves.
Are You Kidding Me?
Can this be right? Did the stock market become oversold in mid October versus Composite Liquidity. This chart said that it did. And even after this huge 2 week rally, it’s still much closer to oversold than overbought. The S&P 500 is still near the bottom of the liquidity band.
It’s very similar to a look it had in July 2011. That preceded 4 years of a relentless, virtually unbroken bullish string.
What should cause us to expect change?
How could that be? I’m putting the finishing touches on a report that explains it, to be posted in Liquidity Trader in two parts. The first will be up early this morning, and the second a bit later this afternoon.
Meanwhile, back at the daily funhouse..
The TBAC’s quarterly borrowing schedules are central to us because they tell us the schedule of expected new Treasury debt issuance (supply), months in advance.
It’s an illusion. I am not out of sync. The market was out of sync. 😄
The chart pattern on the ES fuctures over the past two days is unintelligble gibberish. The November uptrend is broken, but a downtrend hasn’t been established. Instead the past two days have seen a messy, tight trending range of mini-cycles lasting less than a day. Great for trading 1 minute bars and not much more.
But here’s the thing.
It’s still bullish. Take a look and see why.
My longer term work has consistently led me to a bullish conclusion.
Stock Market Biden Time for the Bulls
My comments here pertain only to today, not to what I expect longer term.
The trading pattern in the ES fucutures since the close in NY yesterday is odd looking relative to recent weeks, and recent weeks have been odd looking. Make that recent months. The Fed has distorted the playing field.
The overnight gaps have been legendary. The legendary has become ordinary. If you’re not hedged by trading the fucutures 24 hours a day you are guaranteed an ugly surprise a couple of mornings every week when you get up and look at your screen for the first time at 6:30 AM.