I am really in the weeds, as I continue to deal with the fallout of trying to live in a renovation site. My publication schedule is in chaos. I’ve been working on a Liquidity Trader Money Trends update, which will be posted hopefully within the hour. Then next a Technical Trader update, hopefully before the NY open. Finally, I will almost certainly have to delay the swing trade screen picks until Tuesday morning.
Meanwhile, this comment drew my attention:
On 9/24/2022 at 2:39 AM, sandy beach said:Federal withholding & employment taxes up $16.9% in September from last year. Wow!
That brings up the fact that I track and report this very important data every month virtually in real time. So I’m surprised to see that someone already knows what September will bring. I wasn’t aware of the existence of future data. Curious as to the source.
Anyway, the above report is FALSE! I don’t like to leave misleading data out there without setting the record straight.
The current month to date through September 22, the last posted data for September is +3.9% nominal, or around negative 1% real, suggesting recession has started. This is a rolling 4 week average of 2 weeks of collections. So it is smoothed and lagged a bit, but even comparing wildly volatile day to day, its barely positive nominal, and negative real. The trend is clear.
Let the record stand corrected.
I will be updating this report when the month end data is available. The Treasury will post it Monday evening, and I will attempt to post an update on Tuesday or Wednesday if all goes well.
My last look.
Withholding Tax Collections Collapsed in August But BLS Data Didn’t Show It – Part Two
Could be in a 5 day cycle up phase here. I’d expect it to be weak, followed by a crash in a day or two. Still a 5 day cycle low projection of 3620. Although we got close enough for a DCB.
Meanwhile, back at the big picture:
- Stock Market in Crash Mode September 26, 2022
- Markets Face Catastrophe as Dealers Mitigate Too Little Too Late September 26, 2022
- Swing Trade Screens – Restrained Bearish Instincts September 20, 2022
- Small Comfort for Gold Holders September 23, 2022
- Fed Speeds Into Dead Man’s Curve, More Black Tuesdays Ahead September 15, 2022
- There Will Be More Black Tuesdays September 14, 2022
- Withholding Tax Collections Collapsed in August But BLS Data Won’t Show It September 2, 2022
- Warnings of August Liquidity Crash Come to Fruition – Here’s What to Do August 28, 2022
- Has Rule Number One Been Repealed? August 18, 2022
- “As Good as It Gets” Was Good While It Lasted August 6, 2022
- Treasury Confirms Supply Tsunami We Expected – Will Obliterate Everything August 3, 2022
If you’re serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me!
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