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US Economy Tanking- 9/26/22

This is a syndicated repost published with the permission of Stool Pigeons Wire at Capitalstool.com. To view original, click here. Opinions herein are not those of the Wall Street Examiner or Lee Adler. Reposting does not imply endorsement. The information presented is for educational or entertainment purposes and is not individual investment advice.

I am really in the weeds, as I continue to deal with the fallout of trying to live in a renovation site. My publication schedule is in chaos. I’ve been working on a Liquidity Trader Money Trends update, which will be posted hopefully within the hour. Then next a Technical Trader update, hopefully before the NY open. Finally, I will almost certainly have to delay the swing trade screen picks until Tuesday morning.

Meanwhile, this comment drew my attention:  

  On 9/24/2022 at 2:39 AM, sandy beach said:

Federal withholding & employment taxes up $16.9% in September from last year. Wow!

That brings up the fact that I track and report this very important data every month virtually in real time. So I’m surprised to see that someone already knows what September will bring. I wasn’t aware of the existence of future data.  Curious as to the source.

Anyway, the above report is FALSE! I don’t like to leave misleading data out there without setting the record straight.

The current month to date through September 22, the last posted data for September is +3.9% nominal, or around negative 1% real, suggesting recession has started. This is a rolling 4 week average of 2 weeks of collections. So it is smoothed and lagged a bit, but even comparing wildly volatile day to day, its barely positive nominal, and negative real. The trend is clear.

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Let the record stand corrected.

I will be updating this report when the month end data is available. The Treasury will post it Monday evening, and I will attempt to post an update on Tuesday or Wednesday if all goes well.

My last look.

Withholding Tax Collections Collapsed in August But BLS Data Didn’t Show It – Part Two

Could be in a 5 day cycle up phase here. I’d expect it to be weak, followed by a crash in a day or two. Still a 5 day cycle low projection of 3620. Although we got close enough for a DCB.

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Meanwhile, back at the big picture:

If you’re serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me!

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