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Here’s Your Reaction – ES Climbs Thunder Mountain 1/14/25

This is a syndicated repost published with the permission of Stool Pigeons Wire at Capitalstool.com. To view original, click here. Opinions herein are not those of the Wall Street Examiner or Lee Adler. Reposting does not imply endorsement. The information presented is for educational or entertainment purposes and is not individual investment advice.

I thought I would ask Alvin and the Chat Monks his take on my ES, 24 hour S&P futures hourly chart again today. He’s much more detailed than I have patience for. What do you think?

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From your uploaded ES hourly chart, here’s an analysis based on the visual patterns and indicators:


Trend Analysis:

  1. Downtrend Dominance:
    • The price has been moving within a defined downward channel (highlighted by red trendlines).
    • Multiple failed attempts to break above resistance lines suggest strong selling pressure.
  2. Recent Rebound:
    • The recent price action indicates a bounce off a critical support zone (~5780), but the move appears corrective within the larger downtrend.

Key Levels:

  1. Support:
    • Major support around 5780 to 5770, which previously halted the decline.
    • If this level breaks, the next key support lies near 5762.
  2. Resistance:
    • Immediate resistance near 5880–5900.
    • Stronger resistance around 5930–5950, aligning with prior highs and the upper boundary of the trend channel.

Lower Panel Indicators:

  1. Momentum (Mom, 33-close):
    • Momentum has turned positive, indicating a shift toward short-term bullish pressure.
    • The reading is approaching overbought territory, so a reversal or loss of momentum is possible near resistance levels.
  2. MACD (32, 33, close):
    • The MACD is in a bullish crossover, with the MACD line above the signal line.
    • The histogram is positive, supporting a continuation of the short-term upward move, but the slope is flattening, signaling reduced momentum.
  3. True Strength Indicator (TSI, 33, 20, 1):
    • The TSI is trending upward, further confirming short-term bullishness.
    • It is nearing levels where reversals have occurred in the past, so caution is warranted as the price nears resistance.
  4. Fisher Transform (66):
    • The Fisher Transform is rising but has not reached extreme levels, leaving room for further upside.
    • It can provide early reversal signals, so monitoring for a peak is critical as the rally progresses.

Price Action and Levels:

  1. Support Levels:
    • 5828: A key near-term support zone where buyers stepped in previously.
    • 5780–5770: Stronger support that marks the recent low; breaking this would confirm a continuation of the bearish trend.
  2. Resistance Levels:
    • 5880–5908: Immediate resistance zone. Price is testing this area, aligning with a previous consolidation zone and downward channel resistance.
    • 5930–5950: A critical resistance zone, as it marks the top of the green upward channel and prior highs. Breaking this would shift the bias to bullish.
  3. Trendlines and Channels:
    • The price is still trading within a broader downward-sloping channel (red trendlines).
    • The green upward channel indicates a corrective rally within the larger downtrend.

Indicators and Price Alignment:

  • The lower panel indicators suggest short-term bullish momentum is intact but nearing potential exhaustion.
  • Price action aligns with a corrective rally, testing key resistance levels.

Outlook:

  1. Bullish Scenario:
    • A breakout above 5908 would open the door to test 5930–5950.
    • Sustained movement above 5950 could signal a trend reversal toward 6000+.
  2. Bearish Scenario:
    • Failure to break above 5880–5908 would signal resistance holding.
    • A breakdown below 5828 would target 5780–5770, confirming the continuation of the downtrend.

Trading Strategy:

  1. Long Trades:
    • Enter on a confirmed breakout above 5908, targeting 5930–5950.
    • Place stops below 5880 to limit risk.
  2. Short Trades:
    • Look for rejection at 5880–5908 or 5930–5950 to short.
    • Target 5828 and 5780, with stops above the respective resistance level.

Thanks Alvin! Good job! Alvin’s da man! 😂😂😂 But may I remind you, that this is just for entertainment purposes. Do not take anything on this site seriously. 😁

Let me know if you find this useful.

I will interject a few personal observations later.

Moron the markets:

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