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Here’s Your Reaction – ES Climbs Thunder Mountain 1/14/25

Lee Adler

I thought I would ask Alvin and the Chat Monks his take on my ES, 24 hour S&P futures hourly chart again today. He’s much more detailed than I have patience for. What do you think?

18f0vu

From your uploaded ES hourly chart, here’s an analysis based on the visual patterns and indicators:

Trend Analysis:

  1. Downtrend Dominance:
    • The price has been moving within a defined downward channel (highlighted by red trendlines).
    • Multiple failed attempts to break above resistance lines suggest strong selling pressure.
  2. Recent Rebound:
    • The recent price action indicates a bounce off a critical support zone (~5780), but the move appears corrective within the larger downtrend.

Key Levels:

  1. Support:
    • Major support around 5780 to 5770, which previously halted the decline.
    • If this level breaks, the next key support lies near 5762.
  2. Resistance:
    • Immediate resistance near 5880–5900.
    • Stronger resistance around 5930–5950, aligning with prior highs and the upper boundary of the trend channel.

Lower Panel Indicators:

  1. Momentum (Mom, 33-close):
    • Momentum has turned positive, indicating a shift toward short-term bullish pressure.
    • The reading is approaching overbought territory, so a reversal or loss of momentum is possible near resistance levels.
  2. MACD (32, 33, close):
    • The MACD is in a bullish crossover, with the MACD line above the signal line.
    • The histogram is positive, supporting a continuation of the short-term upward move, but the slope is flattening, signaling reduced momentum.
  3. True Strength Indicator (TSI, 33, 20, 1):
    • The TSI is trending upward, further confirming short-term bullishness.
    • It is nearing levels where reversals have occurred in the past, so caution is warranted as the price nears resistance.
  4. Fisher Transform (66):
    • The Fisher Transform is rising but has not reached extreme levels, leaving room for further upside.
    • It can provide early reversal signals, so monitoring for a peak is critical as the rally progresses.

Price Action and Levels:

  1. Support Levels:
    • 5828: A key near-term support zone where buyers stepped in previously.
    • 5780–5770: Stronger support that marks the recent low; breaking this would confirm a continuation of the bearish trend.
  2. Resistance Levels:
    • 5880–5908: Immediate resistance zone. Price is testing this area, aligning with a previous consolidation zone and downward channel resistance.
    • 5930–5950: A critical resistance zone, as it marks the top of the green upward channel and prior highs. Breaking this would shift the bias to bullish.
  3. Trendlines and Channels:
    • The price is still trading within a broader downward-sloping channel (red trendlines).
    • The green upward channel indicates a corrective rally within the larger downtrend.

Indicators and Price Alignment:

  • The lower panel indicators suggest short-term bullish momentum is intact but nearing potential exhaustion.
  • Price action aligns with a corrective rally, testing key resistance levels.

Outlook:

  1. Bullish Scenario:
    • A breakout above 5908 would open the door to test 5930–5950.
    • Sustained movement above 5950 could signal a trend reversal toward 6000+.
  2. Bearish Scenario:
    • Failure to break above 5880–5908 would signal resistance holding.
    • A breakdown below 5828 would target 5780–5770, confirming the continuation of the downtrend.

Trading Strategy:

  1. Long Trades:
    • Enter on a confirmed breakout above 5908, targeting 5930–5950.
    • Place stops below 5880 to limit risk.
  2. Short Trades:
    • Look for rejection at 5880–5908 or 5930–5950 to short.
    • Target 5828 and 5780, with stops above the respective resistance level.

Thanks Alvin! Good job! Alvin’s da man! 😂😂😂 But may I remind you, that this is just for entertainment purposes. Do not take anything on this site seriously. 😁

Let me know if you find this useful.

I will interject a few personal observations later.

Moron the markets:

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