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Well, well, well, another little selloff hits support. Then…
Nothing.
Back to trend, square one.
You can see for yourself the number they need to break today to break the uptrend, and the next number needed to create even a short term reversal pattern. Those numbers are 5721 and 5712.
Meanwhile, a couple of uptrend channel lines converge at 5780 at the close today. If they clear that, look for a moonshot. If they don’t, more waffling, probably higher. Stars Are Aligned
The 5 day cycle should be in a down phase for a couple more days, but I’m not sure that matters in this environment. Even Hurst wrote, 54 years ago, that cycles only account for 22% of price action. Sometimes it seems like more than that, and sometimes it seems like it’s zero.
Hurst talked about “fundamentals” driving trends. But for me, fundamentals is more about the liquidity trend. As we have learned since the Fed ended QE, markets are quite capable of creating their own liquidity. It depends solely on animal spirits, and market participants willingness to extend leverage along with the wherewithal to extend. The US Treasury has made that amply available through the issuance of T-bills which are instantly convertible into money that can be spent to buy other assets. And the market–the dealers, institutions and hedge funds who can access the ability to repo Treasuries have been more than willing to do that.
In the short run, there’s also news noise, and unpredictable randomness. Liquidity and cycles are forecastable with some assurance. Randomness, by definition, is not. News is sometimes predictable, but its impact is sometimes the opposite of what we might expect.
However, given all that, the markets always return to the trend they were on given liquidity and the willingness to use it. News doesn’t matter. Randomness has to be taken as it comes as sometimes presenting opportunity given its placement within the trend. DItto for news.
So we keep an eye on the things that are somewhat predictable and try to view the news and the randomness with a clear eye to its nothingness in the big picture. That’s the perspective I try to give in reports like this one. Market Can’t Live By Repo Alone
And Stars Are Aligned.
Check it out. I think that you’ll find the perspective useful.
I’ll just add that if you’re paying attention, you’ll know what’s coming long before the mainstream Wall Street media even notices that it’s here.
KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality!
Market Can’t Live By Repo Alone
Here’s a Gold Thing Going Parabolic
For moron the markets see:
- Market Can’t Live By Repo Alone September 25, 2024
- Swing Trade Screen Picks – Let ’em Ride September 24, 2024
- Stars Are Aligned September 23, 2024
- Gold Sings Higher and Higher September 19, 2024
- Macro Money Blows the Roof Off September 17, 2024
- Stock Market Has Perfect Lineup for Fall Classic September 16, 2024
- Primary Dealer Clown Show Danger Pales in Comparison to Hedgie Daredevils September 11, 2024
- Here’s Hard Evidence that the Slowing Economy Narrative is False September 8, 2024
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