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And it’s off to the races! The 5 day cycle up phase finally found some momo. Who knows why? And who cares? Why does why matter? Every day its something different, and tomorrow it will be contradictory. There’s only one why that counts. That is that there’s more money available today than there was yesterday.
So we look at the ES 24 hour S&P futures hourly chart and see that it has broken out again. But the 5 day cycle projection now is only 5770 and we’re there. There’s also resistance indicated here. On the other hand, the hourly oscillators are very bullish and probably support an extension of the move. If they clear 5775, there’s room to run to 5792 by the NY close. At that point, the round number syndrome calls.
Meanwhile, over in bondland, the 10 year yield is on the cusp of trend reversal. Or resumption. Market Can’t Live By Repo Alone
And the euro didn’t break out yesterday. Can I breathe a sigh of relief? Not yet.
Gold 2700, baby! More to come? I’m working on an update right now. Here’s last week’s report. Gold Sings Higher and Higher
What do the bitcoin bros got? Cycle projections say 69k.
Lee AdlerNot much has changed in liquidity measures since last week’s breakout to new highs. Most indicators have paused. But the market rallies remain well supported by adequate liquidity. Non-subscribers, click here for access.
Subscribers, click here to download the report.
There are a couple of things to watch. One is that the September T-bill paydowns have ended. These are regular quarterly occurrences that happen when quarterly estimated income tax collections come in. The US Treasury briefly has an excess of cash, and pays down outstanding T-bills. Those are direct cash infusions into dealer and big investor accounts, and they’re virtually always bullish. That prop now goes away until December. Non-subscribers, click here for access.
The other factor is that the Fed’s RRP slush fund has rebounded as a result of those paydowns, and the stupidity of quarter end window dressing. Much of that spike will disappear on October 1. Then we’ll see how much investable cash remains in the RRP facility, so that we can get a better idea of when that fund will run out of cash, and stop acting as a prop for asset prices. Non-subscribers, click here for access.
I continue to estimate that it will effectively run out of money in xxxxxxxxxxx, or xxxxxxxxx at the latest. That’s when we’ll find out whether animal spirits are sustainable on the basis of repo borrowing alone, along with the attendant increase in leverage. Non-subscribers, click here for access.
KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality!
For moron the markets see:
- Market Can’t Live By Repo Alone September 25, 2024
- Swing Trade Screen Picks – Let ’em Ride September 24, 2024
- Stars Are Aligned September 23, 2024
- Gold Sings Higher and Higher September 19, 2024
- Macro Money Blows the Roof Off September 17, 2024
- Stock Market Has Perfect Lineup for Fall Classic September 16, 2024
- Primary Dealer Clown Show Danger Pales in Comparison to Hedgie Daredevils September 11, 2024
- Here’s Hard Evidence that the Slowing Economy Narrative is False September 8, 2024
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