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5645 9/13/24

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That’s the 5 day cycle projection on the ES. The ES would first need to clear a couple of resistance lines around 5620 today. The projection implies a test of the early September high of 5655. If it gets there today, I’d expect a battle royal. Otherwise pull back first and then try try again next week.

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The bulls are getting a lot of help from the US Treasury this month, as we knew would be the case, thanks to September estimated tax collections filling the Treasury Cash Account. Here’s Hard Evidence that the Slowing Economy Narrative is False

Market participants are getting a Treasury cash refund of $88 billion versus payments due of just $61 billion.  That’s a lot of extra slosh that will be floating around until the next coupon issue at the end of the month.

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Meanwhile, the US Treasury carry trade is alive and well. Primary Dealer Clown Show Danger Pales in Comparison to Hedgie Daredevils

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And gold broke out yesterday. The breakout of this pattern measures to 2615-2635. Gold Gets Ready to Rumble 9/12/24

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For moron the markets, see:

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