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Rally Tops Out on Lack of Fed Move 3/21/24

This is a syndicated repost published with the permission of Stool Pigeons Wire at To view original, click here. Opinions herein are not those of the Wall Street Examiner or Lee Adler. Reposting does not imply endorsement. The information presented is for educational or entertainment purposes and is not individual investment advice.

Has it really topped out? Maybe not yet, but it’s close. As I pointed out yesterday, the conventional measured move target of a high base breakout would be around 5275, so let’s allow for that. However, the 5 day cycle projection stands at 5245-55, and that’s done.

The 2 hour bar chart of the ES 24 hour S&P futures is also in the “well maybe” camp, although it shows trend resistance around 5260-65 today. Today would ideally be the day for the 5 day cycle to top out. So whether there’s another 20-25 points left in this move, today is likely the day for second thoughts to start setting in. Primary Dealers Raise Red Flag

Looking at the hourly chart, we see hourly cycle oscillators that have ticked to the sell side. But they are so high up in positive territory that it means there’s plenty of residual bullish momentum for prices to continue to trend higher at a slower rate for the time being. There’s also a rising trend spport line today from around 5240 to 5250 that I’d look at as a constraint for any pullback today.


Meanwhile, my cycle screen swing trade list continues to do extremely well as trailing stops protect increasing profits. A stop was hit on two of the shorts, taking them out with nice profits. Another stop was hit on just one of the longs also taking it out with a nice profit and at a better price than its current price. As a result, the current performance the 11 picks on the list this week, including open picks and those stopped out this week, shows an average gain of 22.7% on an average holding period of 37 calendar days. For the month of March so far, including previously closed trades, the average gain is 13.7% on average holding period of 32 calendar days.

The tweaks that I have made recently to the screening algorithms have now completely automated the process and that appears to be working by removing my judgement from the process. 😁   Swing Trade Screen Picks – Adding Stops to Take Profits March 17, 2024


Past performance does not suggest future results.

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