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The market continues to ram relentlessly higher despite being as extended as it gets on the hourly chart of the ES, 24 hour S&P futures. The 5 day cycle projection has risen to 4285. A conventional measured move target of the earlier base breakout measured to 4245, which was blown out with ease. Now an even bigger potential base has formed with a top line at 4266. If they get clear of that, the conventional measured move target would then be around 4405. Ugh. Hard to believe, Harry.
All right, that’s still an “if.” What if they don’t clear 4266. Then we’re looking at trend support at 4258 as of the NY open, rising to 4268 at the close. For shorts to have any chance of avoiding a further squeeze, that line MUST be broken. But even if it is, to get any downside going at all, they would need to break support at 4244.
Arguing for a selloff today is the fact that I came into yesterday a little bit long in my trading port, and left heavy long. Normally, I would need to fade myself to be consistently profitable in my babbling idiocy when it comes to day trading, which is more of an addiction for me, than a real profession. If it was a real profession, Capitalstool and The Wall Street Examiner would not exist. It is well said that, “Those who can, do, and those who can’t, teach.”
So take every thing I say with a grain of salt, and your results will improve. 🤣🤣🤣 Swing Trade Screen Picks – Adding Longs October 31, 2023
Meanwhile, the mainstream media explanations that I have read about the performance of the Treasury market are truly laughable. These clowns have just discovered that bonds are in a bear market in the past couple of weeks despite it having been around for 3 years. Insane, really. I am working on two reports for Liquidity Trader that will get into the nitty gritty of why there is no end in sight to this bear market.
But the bottom line is that all the conditions which caused this bear market in the first place still exist, and Load Jaysus confirmed yesterday that the Fed isn’t even thinking about accommodation to ameliorate that.
So, sure, there will be rallies. I even called a temporary top in the 10 year yield a couple of weeks. Genius? Hell now. But I can draw lines. If you can draw lines and do cycle projections with a little basic rithmatic any idiot can make bond calls that usually work out. I am living proof of that. Fortunately, I do not trade bonds, therefore my calls have some basis for reliability.
If you want to know one thing that will always keep you on the right side of the bond market when the Fed isn’t buying it up, you must remember this, an ISS is but an ISS, a lie is but a lie. The fundamental things apply as time goes by.
It’s the Supply Stupid. Here’s Why Macro Liquidity Still Signals Record Danger
As for our friend the yellow metal, one of its truisms, aside from remembering not to eat that yellow snow, is that the more resistance is attacked the weaker it becomes. The price of the metal is overbought, but if it corrects by going sideways in the $2000 vicinity, it will sure as hell attack the 2050 area, according to cycle projections. But what those who dig the stuff? Gold In the Mix
For moron the markets, see:
- Gold In the Mix November 1, 2023
- Swing Trade Screen Picks – Adding Longs October 31, 2023
- Last Week I Warned of Market Crash Potential October 30, 2023
- Here’s Why Macro Liquidity Still Signals Record Danger October 28, 2023
- Dealers Pull In Their Horns October 14, 2023
- Tepid Tax Collections Mean It’s the Supply October 4, 2023
- The Rhymes of History September 24, 2023
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