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I have been warning Technical Trader subscribers about the likelihood that this is a cyclical bull market since Q4 of last year when cycle analysis suggested that a 4 year cycle low was due. And I think that we got proof of it yesterday when we saw a new intermediate term higher high after a higher low. In both cases it was the second higher high and higher low over a period of months. That’s a bull market in my book.
But this “bull” is now 8 months old. And even though the short term looks very bullish, if you think that we can then extrapolate this into another long secular bull run, think again. It’s unlikely. Think Japan after their first pullback from their initial QE experiment 30 years ago. They stayed locked in a range for a couple of decades.
So I think that unless the Fed returns to full fledged long term QE, flexibility will be the key. You’ll need to do the technicals, and follow the liquidity flows, and assume nothing. I don’t think that buy and hold will work. Buy and trade, just might, however.
Meanwhile today looks bullish. We had a base breakout yesterday. The 5 day cycle projection is now 4225. The base breakout measures to 4250 in the short run. There’s an even bigger base that suggests 4310 in a couple of days. But first, a number. They need to clear trend resistance around 4220.
I’m not even gonna think about the downside yet. Trend support is coming up to 4190 in the opening hour in NY, so don’t get suckered by any little shakeouts that come up this morning.
For moron the markets, see:
- Swing Trade Chart Picks – Let’s Get Ready to Rumble May 18, 2023
- The Most Widely Forecast Economic Disaster In History May 16, 2023
- The Twilight Zone May 15, 2023
- Swing Trade Chart Picks – Buy Side Wins This Week May 8, 2023
- There’s One Key this Week to the Stock Market Outlook May 7, 2023
- Gold Is on the Brink May 5, 2023
- Weak Real Time Withholding Taxes Set Up a Showdown May 4, 2023
- The Big One is Coming May 3, 2023
- Gold’s Lost Luster Will Shine Again April 25, 2023
- Enjoy the Market Mirage Now Because We’re Really In a Desert April 24, 2023
- The Fed’s Circle Jerk, is ‘Twerking? April 18, 2023
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