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There’s a tiny little top pattern on the hourly chart of the ES, 24 hour S&P fugutures at 5:20 AM New York Time. But it hasn’t broken down yet, and cycle projections still point higher.
What to believe. What to believe.
Well, if the ES breaks 3963 here it would have a measured move objective of 3953.
It’s a start.
Hourly cycle oscillators look toppy, and momentum formed a negative divergence in the first two peaks of the pattern last night. On the other hand, there’s still a 2-3 day cycle projection of 3990, and a 5 day cycle projection that’s unclear but seems to point to at least 4010. And perhaps higher.
To take that off the table, we would need to see the ES trading below 3950 at some point this morning. If they rally instead, there’s trend resistance at 3975. Take that out, and I think that 4010 would be a done deal.
Bonds have rallied over the past couple of weeks. This is a critical juncture, as is obvious on the daily chart of the 10 year Treasury yield. If they drop below 3.45, the target would be 3.25. If they hold here, up, up and away.
For moron the markets, see:
- Gold in Them Thar Hills, January 11, 2023
- Swing Trade Screen Picks – Low Conviction January 9, 2023
- You Think That Was The Bottom? Think Again January 8, 2023
- Withholding Taxes Are Soaring January 6, 2023
- Gold Has Begun a Cyclical Bull Market January 4, 2023
- Here’s Where Short Term Signals Either Confirm Bullish Or Else January 2, 2023
- Composite Liquidity Still Bearish, No End in Sight December 23, 2022
- May Gold Be Merciful Unto Us, Amen December 19, 2022
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