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Hourly oscillators are on the buy side on the ES S&P 500 fuguetures this morning. It looks like only a 3 day cycle low. It’s too early for the 5 day, so I’m guessing there’s one more down wave accompanied by a positive divergence before this sell wave ends.
The key levels to watch this morning are 3800-05, coming into the NY open. If they clear that, the next minor resistance level would be 3820. Breaking that would create a minor reversal breakout that would measure to 3855.
Seems unlikely, but it’s not my decision. Now, on the downside, keep an eye on 3765-75. That’s the major sport level that needs to hold. If it breaks, Happy Meltdown.
That also seems unlikely. However, whatever the market gives, I’ll take it, thank you very much.
An uptick on Friday would coincide with a letup in the year end tax selling that most likely is all but done. Most wealth is, after all, managed by professionals, and most likely they want to take the day off tomorrow. So, being the prudent planners that they are, I suspect that they’re done with their tax sales. Their ski reservations are made and many of them are already on the slopes.
In fact, in my daily swing trade screens, I’ve seen lots of evidence of nibbling for bargains this week.
So, no, I don’t expect a massive collapse today and tomorrow, and yes, I think we see a bit of rebound to start the new year.
A bit. As for the bigger picture, I’ll post my outlook to begin the new year later on this coming long weekend.
For moron the markets, see:
- Swing Trade Screen Picks – Overloaded with Broad Market Shorts and Oil and Gas Longs December 26, 2022
- Composite Liquidity Still Bearish, No End in Sight December 23, 2022
- The Trend Was the Bears’ Friend December 19, 2022
- Swing Trade Screen Picks – Short Stops Killed but Many More Added December 19, 2022
- May Gold Be Merciful Unto Us, Amen December 19, 2022
- Fed Steadfast But Treasury Throws a Bullish Curve December 14, 2022
- Federal Tax Revenues Are Slowing December 6, 2022
- Fed Policy Will Stay Bearish Until It’s Too Late November 20, 2022
- The Repeal of Rule Number One, Don’t Fight the Fed November 14, 2022
- Bond Market Rally is Technically Valid but Belies the Facts November 12, 2022
If you’re serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me!
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