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The market has settled into a trading range, as usual, as it waits for the FOMC circus to come to down on its regularly scheduled visit every six weeks. This show is just a few days before the annual Sell Rosh Hashanah, Buy Yom Kippur period. But that does not tell us what to do in the couple of days before that rule comes into effect. That will depend on whether there’s the traditional Fed resubstantiation rally in the wake of the circus elephant’s droppings.
The beauty of the current chart pattern on the ES, 24 hour S&P futures is that it is perfectly positioned for… well… anything. The 3 day cycle is due for an upturn. The 5 day cycle is due for a downturn. The price as of 6:30 AM in New York is right in the middle of the 3 day range, and cycle oscillators are in neutral territory. The market hasn’t tipped its hand, because in the short run nobody knows WTF to do.
So we wait.
As far as the Department of BTC Leads- Sometimes, no help here either.
Meanwhile, check out the trend of the 10 year yield ever since Bloomberg posted BAC’s call for 2% at the exact moment of the exact low on August 2. I mean, a fiction writer could not write this shit. That’s how diabolical the Street is. Remember that BAC- Mohel Lynch is one of the biggest Fed/Treasury Primary Dealers. Oy, do they got tips for you!
Last but not least, today the Fed will pretend that it controls interest rates as it merely attempt to catch up with a market that has already moved 100 bp since the last FOMC circus, with ringmaster Cool Jay Powell.
Meanwhile, the big picture:
- Swing Trade Screens – Restrained Bearish Instincts September 20, 2022
- What a Whipsaw! Here’s How Big The Move Will Be September 19, 2022
- In the Goldrums September 16, 2022
- Fed Speeds Into Dead Man’s Curve, More Black Tuesdays Ahead September 15, 2022
- There Will Be More Black Tuesdays September 14, 2022
- Swing Trade Screens – Trailing Stops Did Their Job To Preserve Profits September 12, 2022
- Withholding Tax Collections Collapsed in August But BLS Data Won’t Show It September 2, 2022
- Warnings of August Liquidity Crash Come to Fruition – Here’s What to Do August 28, 2022
- Has Rule Number One Been Repealed? August 18, 2022
- “As Good as It Gets” Was Good While It Lasted August 6, 2022
- Treasury Confirms Supply Tsunami We Expected – Will Obliterate Everything August 3, 2022
If you’re serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me!
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