A Very Bearish Sign – 7/26/22

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Normally on this site, the daily views on a thread vary inversely with the market trend. The highest numbers coincide with bottoms, and the lowest with tops. I went back a year and yesterday’s volume was the lowest in that time. No other trading day was close. So by that measure we’re at the top of another rally that fools the majority.

Although you couldn’t tell by the hourly chart of the 24 hour ES, S&P fugutures.

First I’ll start with the 5 hour bars. Looks like a consolidation pounding away at the downtrend..

 

Zooming in to the two hour bars, looks like it might be a top, but the right side peaks and valleys are higher than the left. That’s been a bullish tell for at least a dozen years. ‘ Course, I don’t think we’re in a bull market any more, Toto. So maybe the lower highs and lows on the right side of a pattern are no longer a requirement.

 

Finally, our usual look at the one hour bars because we focus on useless minutiae on this thread. Useless, that is, except for day traders. You don’t need to be a genius to see that 3943 and 3938 are critical sport levels. If broken, they’ll trigger a little selling. And that will really look like a top to most traders.

Then they’ll sell it down to 3924 and… the Fed resubstantiation dipshit rally will kick off.

Meanwhile, resistance is up there at 3985 and 4013. If they don’t clear those, nothing has happened yet. And if they do, the measured move objective would be around 4075.

Now, stay tuned for tomorrow’s Fed Dog and Pony Circus, led by ringmaster, Jaysus Lord Powell.

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