This is a syndicated repost published with the permission of Stool Pigeons Wire at Capitalstool.com. To view original, click here. Opinions herein are not those of the Wall Street Examiner or Lee Adler. Reposting does not imply endorsement. The information presented is for educational or entertainment purposes and is not individual investment advice.
To give some perspective on this, here’s the 5 hr bar chart on the 24 hour ES S&P fugutures. Now this looks like a massive top, doesn’t it. But not all patterns that look like tops are tops. In fact, as you know, for the past dozen years, all patterns are bullish, right?
So I don’t want to jump the gun here, but if this mofo breaks down below 4495, the conventional measured move price target would be around 4175. Wouldn’t that be fun. Now, here at the Stool we’re only interested in the day to day patterns, not the big picture. For that, you gotta go here. https://liquiditytrader.com/index.php/category/technical-market-timing/
But this has to be seen.
Now let’s get down to the nitty gritty. What about today.
The 2-5 day cycles are in an up phase, believe it or not. It began yesterday. It’s weak as hell so far. If they don’t clear 4595 today, another precipitous, maybe even thunderous, slide becomes likely. Above 4595, I’d look for a really big move. Possibly 4598, or even 4612. Then we’ll see.
Back at Buttcoin Coral, the controllers keep trying to make it look like a bottom. The 6 month cycle projection is a bit higher today, but still pointing below the current low. It’s looking like 36,500. That’s by no means carved in stone. The revisions have been in the range of only $2500 per day. And that’s supposed to be a safe haven. Keep squeezing them out there, boys!
Meanwhile, the 10 year Treasury yield is hanging around above the breakout line after this week’s bustamove that measures to 2.35. If you want the big picture for the stock market, you first need to understand the big pic for the Treasury market. https://liquiditytrader.com/index.php/2022/01/14/fed-will-administer-volckera-to-cure-inflation-pandemic-and-well-all-die/
So is the euro still in a downtrend against the Doolah? I think so. Under 1.1275 it’s probably going a lot lower and my income income in USD will be well hedged against inflation here. But if the EUR/USD strengthens, I’m gonna get squeezed.
BUT… at least my housing cost will be fixed.
I’m about to make a big investment in European real estate, not because I think the timing is great. It’s obviously not. Or maybe we’re going into a 20 year inflation and real estate is the best hedge.
I really don’t know. It’s hard to make predictions, especially about the future. Hell, economists and central bankers don’t even know what’s going on in the present. Our job is to just know wtf the trend is and recognize the conditions that signal that the trend is likely to change, and then is changing. That’s hard enough.
But a home is not an investment. It can have aspects of an investment, but more importantly, it has utility. And it can have love, the value of which can’t be measured in doolahs. I want to have a place to live that I love, without a monthly nut to weigh me down.
What’s the value of that kind of freedom- a home that doesn’t enslave you with a big monthly nut? Immeasurable. I’ve been a wandering Jew for the last 4 years, the last 26 months of that in Europe. From France to Spain, to Portugal, back to Spain and France, Italy, Croatia, Montenegro, Croatia, Slovenia, Slovakia, and finally to my ancestral homeland of Poland; which I’ve grown to love in many ways, and loathe in others.
My goal has always been to end up in the South of France, and on January 31, I will be there. That will be home, for 8-9 months a year, anyway.
Hopefully, I’ll have a nice wad of cash from selling my house in FL in the next couple weeks. No mortgage on that either. It’s nice to have all equity, even though leverage can make you rich under the right conditions. I think those conditions are now coming to an end.
Obviously, there’s still no point in holding cash. And rents in Europe, the Cote d’Azur in particular, are high relative to purchase cost, so the rent vs. buy decision still weighs in favor of buy.
Too bad the apartment I like best is on a 99 year emphyteutic (land) lease with 64 years left. In 64 years, the value is zero. I really have no idea how much to discount my offer because of that. When I start doing the math, I end up in a brain loop.
And now (Paul Harvey voice) the rest of the story:
If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter.
Join the conversation and have a little fun at Capitalstool.com. If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter.