The current move projection on the 10 year Treasury yield is 1.70. Longer projections point higher. I update that regularly in LT.
Let’s look at how much leveraged bondholders have lost since last August. We can use the TLT- the 20 year Treasury ETF as a proxy.
By my calculation, they’re approaching a loss of 20%. Remember that dealers buy this shit with 90% leverage. At least. And if you go back a little more in time, they bought a ton of it.
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