Up the Escalator, Down the Shaft 1/5/21

As of this morning, the ES fucutures, representing the broad big cap US market, are at a price level it first reached on December 4.  Reminds me of the old stock market adage, up the escalator, down the elevator.

One day, we’re gonna get the shaft.

Without the elevator cab.

Those daily oscillators aren’t looking too sprightly either.

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At the moment, the ES has settled on the centerline of the channel that began forming from the November 9 peak. A little lower here and they should plunge right to the bottom of the channel now around 3625. Of course, they might hold at the current level, which would mean base building toward a new high, and possibly even a breakout from the channel.

I cover those exigencies here.

Meanwhile, our usual hourly bar chart perspective is maddeningly uncertain. Could be a 2-3 day cycle low with the rest of the 5 day cycle down phase still to come. Or it could be something else. I can’t tell. It’s just too ambiguous. The parameters to watch for a sign would be downtrending resistance now around 3700 at 7 AM in NY, and support at 3680. Breaking out of that triangle should signal the next significant intraday move.

I’ll have a Liquidity Trader update for you a little later. This is the most recent.

Ciao for now!

Join me for my intraday observations and add your own! 

Lee Adler

I’ve been publishing The Wall Street Examiner and its predecessor since October 2000. I also publish LiquidityTrader.com, and was lead analyst for Sure Money Investor, of blessed memory. I developed David Stockman's Contra Corner for Mr. Stockman. I’ve had a wide variety of finance related jobs since 1972, including a stint on Wall Street in both sales, analytical, and trading capacities. Prior to starting the Wall Street Examiner I was a commercial real estate appraiser in Florida for 15 years. I was considered an expert in the analysis of failed properties that ended up in the hands of bank REO divisions, the FDIC, and the RTC. Remember those guys? I also worked in the residential mortgage and real estate businesses in parts of the 1970s and 80s. I have been charting stocks and markets and doing analytical work since I was a teenager. I'm not some Ivory Tower academic, Wall Street guy. My perspective comes from having my boots on the ground and in the trenches, as a real estate broker, mortgage broker, trader, account rep, and analyst. I've watched most of the games these Wall Street wiseguys play from right up close. I know the drill from my 55 years of paying attention. And I'm happy to share that experience with you, right here. 

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