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Other than anything I say, the fiscal games that the Trump Regime is playing on its way out. As Jorma axed laxt nocht on the Stool Pigeons Wire at Capitalstool.com:
Munchin says he is putting the unspent CARES Act money back in the Treasury General Account at the end of the year.. Those are the exact words I read. But where are they now? Do you know Lee? Do agencies have their own segregated accounts?
So is the appx. $500 billion ‘returned’ going to put the Treasury General Account at $2TN? Why and WTF for? Also, why borrow another $150bn by Dec.1? Inertia?
This “unspent money,” is absolutely irrelevant.
WTF is the big deal? The Fed can create as much money as it wants, when it wants. Witness the $190 billion per month it is currently imaginining into existence when it credits Primary Dealer trading accounts. The Fed does that so that the dealers can buy more paper at a discount and sell it at a premium at no cost to themselves. They merely act as strawmen for the real buyer- Load Jaysus, of the Fed. Load Jaysus, praised be his glorious name forever and ever, pays his dealers a skim on every purchase and sale that results from the cash that He, in his infinite power to create money, hands them every day.
Let there be money! Saith the Load!
And lo! There was money!
I mean, really, WTF, are we even paying attention to this Trumpkin Mnunchin shit? Because the fucking Wall Street mob that runs the massive fucking Primary Dealer skimming operations, wants you to. And it works. Every goddamn, fucking time, it works. Clueless, paid financial media shills, and drooling CNBC viewers and WSJ readers just lap this shit up, like it means something.
Well we are not clueless, because we see the noise for what it is. Blatant propaganda designed to whip the public into a frenzy of anxiety and confusion. Meanwhile, we pay attention to what matters- how much is coming, and where it’s going.
As for its alphabet soup programs, the Fed can create those at will also. They made up some bullshit about the Treasury partnering with them for this CARES nonsense. It’s bullshit. It was just an excuse to back the worst of the loans with cash raised from taxpayers and bond buyers. That was instead of using new Fed money which created bank deposits, which, G-D forbid, people might decide to withdraw en masse one day.
But guess what. Nobody wanted the CARES money. All those alphabet soup programs have about $200 billion outstanding. That’s about what the Fed pumps into its Primary Dealer subsidies each and every month. The dealers then use that money to buy more inventory, promote the hell out of it on CNBC and in the WSJ, mark it up, and move it out.
Relative to that operation, the CARES and other Fed alphabet soup programs are about as meaningful as a pimple on an elephant’s butt.
Back in the early days of the pandemiconomic panic the Treasury raised a couple trillion bucks via debt sales. It’s still sitting on more than $1.5 trillion of that. Whether those funds were earmarked in some way for various purposes, I doubt, but I really don’t know.
It doesn’t matter. The fact is that Congress has to appropriate spending. Otherwise the Trumpists would have spent it to keep the fatass, tin-pot, lying, whining dictator, in power. They didn’t because it was never appropriated. It’s interesting because I thought that they could have gotten away with it. But apparently our government institutions still have a few functionaries with a shred of integrity.
So will Joe and Moscow Mitch sit down and decide to spend some it in the months ahead? I’d imagine so. How much, only G-d knows and he doesn’t exist for our purposes.
But the real issue is whether they appropriate anything beyond that $1.5 trillion that still sits there. My guess is no. The level of government borrowing now is atrocious and obscene enough.
Just keep in mind that what they don’t spend, they can use to pay down outstanding debt. That should have any remaining bears quaking in their boots.
But again, WTF do I know?
The only game that matters.
Now, on to today’s market.
4:00 AM ET
As for the current state of the ES fucutures at 4 AM in NY, we seem to have reached yet another infartion point.
Trend support is indicated here at about 3635. If it holds, the thrust seems capable of launching the ES to 3660, or even 3675 by the end of the NY market day this afternoon.
If this trend support line breaks here, then we look for the next trend support around 3625 or support level of 3620. Not a big deal.
I think that up is more likely. The trend is your friend and all.
If they’re going to break it, they’ll have to show me they can first. This is not an environment where I see any benefit in being early.
Meanwhile, the euro is back above $1.19. Ouch. Thanks to my income being in doolars, I’ve suffered 10% inflation since I came to Europe a year ago.
The Fed has done a great job of stimulating consumer price inflation everywhere but in the US.
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