Overseas investors apparently were not impressed. Although here at 4:20 AM NY time, they’ve cut the loss in the fucutures in half.
Liquidity moves markets!Follow the money. Find the profits!
Again, interesting perspective from the 2 hour bars. They cleared the big downtrend channel twice, early and late. They couldn’t stick, so after hours, they broke this week’s uptrend. Now, we’re in a no man’s land.
Two numbers to watch on the upside are 3320 and 3335. If they can’t clear those, then this new little downtrend channel is confirmed. On the other hand, if they drop below 3280, before NY opens, then we could be in crash mode.
And the 1 hour bars. If you consider the whole width of the chart, it looks like a huge base, if they hold above 3293. If it doesn’t, then they’ll probably target 3270 or 3245 next.
Today is a huge day in terms of liquidity. About as bearish as it gets.
And by the way, if Nancy and Mr. Minuskaching do manage to get a new pandemiconomic relief bill passed, it will be very bearish for stocks.
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We have known for a couple of months that there would be a mountain of Treasury supply hitting the market at the end of September. We also knew that Fed QE would be far from adequate to absorb this supply. So I have expected something bearish for stocks at the end of September. This could spill over into the first week of October.
But then things get hairy for bears, with potentially happy days for bulls. Unfortunately, we have a little problem this week. There’s no visibility. We don’t know what they have planned for the next couple weeks. That’s different from usual, where we can usually see ahead for a week or two because we know the Fed’s QE schedule, and also pretty much know how much Treasury supply to expect.
Now, thanks to the exigencies of the past pandemiconomic US Treasury fund raising back in March and April, we don’t have that luxury on Treasury supply, which forces us to surmise some things.
Here they are.
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Catch up with the short term to longer term outlook, and chart picks for playing both sides of the game in my weekly Technical Trader reports. Here’s the latest:
An up day on Monday would confirm that the short term downtrend is broken. This report gives you the key support and resistance levels, and what to expect if they’re broken. I’ve added 8 chart picks, 5 longs and 3 shorts, to take advantage of a move either way.
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