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At 5:30 AM in New York, the ES has turned up, broken out, and reached resistance.
Here’s what I had written at 3 AM, as Europe was opening. For those of you unaware, I don’t get up at 3 AM. I am in Europe. 😀
Anyway, at this point, my guess looks wrong. But it depends on what happens right here at 3393-95 as this resistance trendline is tested. If breached, there’s easy clearance to 3425.
In this case, that’s double tops. Very slight negative divergences in hourly oscillators, but no rollover yet as Europe opens and New York sleeps at 3 AM ET.
Significant resistance on ES around 3385 area. If cleared, they run into another resistance band 3390-95. If not, initially vulnerable to 3365.
Big Treasury coupon settlement today. No Fed MBS settlements and only small Treasury purchase. Bearish.
My guess for today? Down.
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The June selloff was 265 points high to low. So far, the current selloff has hit 278. Bigger? Nope, not in percentage terms. This one is -7.7%. That one was -8.2%. So, we can still say that this time isn’t different.
Yet. But there’s smoke. Plenty of it.
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