Influences on USD include trade flows, including tourism, Financial flows, and pure trading flows. I’ve often wondered which is dominant.
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Normally this time of year Americans are selling dollars and buying euros heavily because of travel. More Americans travel to EU than vice versa. Without that, you’d expect USD to be stronger than normal this year. But it’s weaker. That leaves financial flows and trading flows.
Obviously, there’s a lot of buying of Treasuries. That would require foreigners to buy dollars. Again, it’s not showing up in the USD price in other currencies.
So by process of elimination, this move is all about traders playing the charts. As losses mount for dollar paper holders, they’re under pressure to sell the assets, i.e. Treasuries and US stocks, right? So that should be bearish for those markets.
What am I missing?
Meanwhile, sell signals on the hourlies
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