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The market made a 3 day cycle low at the bell yesterday, testing it in the wee hours in NY. The ES has now rallied back to the top of the channel (since broken). This is where push comes to shove.
The up phase may die here, leading to another leg down to a 5 day cycle low later today or tomorrow. It is currently projected around 3125. Or the market could break the downtrend with an hourly bar closing above 3161 now, or above 3157 in the next hour. That trendline drops at a rate of about 4 points per hour.
If they clear that, the next obstacle is the top of a flattish uptrend channel at 3164 (still intact). If that holds, then another plunge like yesterday’s would be possible, if not likely over the next couple of days.
We’re at a fulcrum here, so stay tuned.
UPDATE 6 AM ET
A downtrend channel using the lows with a paralell upper bound is intact.
UPDATE 8:20 AM ET
The downtrend channel was broken by the price moving sideways. This is not usually bullish. The ES would now need to clear 3166 for a bullish signal.
UPDATE 10:55 AM ET
ES needs to clear 3160 to avoid a crash later today.
Hourly oscillators now in bullish patterns. ES needs to clear 3166 for the up phase to get legs. Then has clearance to 3185.
