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3 Day Cycle Low 7/14/20 UPDATED 1:40 PM ET

This is a syndicated repost courtesy of Stool Pigeons Wire at To view original, click here. Reposted with permission.

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The market made a 3 day cycle low at the bell yesterday, testing it in the wee hours in NY. The ES has now rallied back to the top of the channel (since broken). This is where push comes to shove.

At 5:20 AM ET

The up phase may die here, leading to another leg down to a 5 day cycle low later today or tomorrow. It is currently projected around 3125. Or the market could break the downtrend with an hourly bar closing above 3161 now, or above 3157 in the next hour. That trendline drops at a rate of about 4 points per hour.

If they clear that, the next obstacle is the top of a flattish uptrend channel at 3164 (still intact). If that holds, then another plunge like yesterday’s would be possible, if not likely over the next couple of days.

We’re at a fulcrum here, so stay tuned.


A downtrend channel using the lows with a paralell upper bound is intact.



The downtrend channel was broken by the price moving sideways. This is not usually bullish. The ES would now need to clear 3166 for a bullish signal.


ES needs to clear 3160 to avoid a crash later today.



Hourly oscillators now in bullish patterns. ES needs to clear 3166 for the up phase to get legs. Then has clearance to 3185.



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Lee Adler

I’ve been publishing The Wall Street Examiner and its predecessor since October 2000. I also publish, and was lead analyst for Sure Money Investor, of blessed memory. I developed David Stockman's Contra Corner for Mr. Stockman. I’ve had a wide variety of finance related jobs since 1972, including a stint on Wall Street in both sales, analytical, and trading capacities. Prior to starting the Wall Street Examiner I was a commercial real estate appraiser in Florida for 15 years. I was considered an expert in the analysis of failed properties that ended up in the hands of bank REO divisions, the FDIC, and the RTC. Remember those guys? I also worked in the residential mortgage and real estate businesses in parts of the 1970s and 80s. I have been charting stocks and markets and doing analytical work since I was a teenager. I'm not some Ivory Tower academic, Wall Street guy. My perspective comes from having my boots on the ground and in the trenches, as a real estate broker, mortgage broker, trader, account rep, and analyst. I've watched most of the games these Wall Street wiseguys play from right up close. I know the drill from my 55 years of paying attention. And I'm happy to share that experience with you, right here. 

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