The good news is that new cases and new deaths in the US declined week to week. The bad news is that the decline in case numbers was miniscule, and there were big regional differences. The Northeast, which was by far the worst hit region, is showing improvement. The South is getting worse.
According to the COVID19 Tracking Project, the US registered 21,293 new cases yesterday, Tuesday, May 12. That compares with 21,899 cases on Tuesday, May 5. That decline of 606 cases amounted to a 2.8% decline.
Deaths attributed to COVID19 totaled 1,522, a decline of 1,000 from the 2,522 deaths a week before on May 5. This was nearly a 40% decline in deaths.
The Northeast
Looking at the worst hit Northeast, including New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Connecticut and Massachusetts, 4,503 new cases were reported yesterday. That was a decline of 3,443 new cases, or 43%, from the previous Tuesday.
Source: https://datausa.io/coronavirus#cases
There were 544 deaths reported yesterday. That was a decline of 834, or 60.5% from Tuesday, last week.
Data Source: The Covid Tracking Project
These states still have restrictions in place but gradual lifting of restrictions is due to begin in the weeks ahead.
The South
The South was mostly a different story. A geographic swath covering North Carolina to Texas, excluding Louisiana and Arkansas, did not do well. Florida, Georgia, and Tennessee in particular, had flareups.
The number of daily cases in this grouping was 4,445 on Tuesday May 12 (Monday in Texas). That was an increase of 1,445, or 48% from the prior week. Deaths fell by 96 to 195, a decline of 33%. Deaths lag case numbers by 3-4 weeks.
Data Source: The Covid Tracking Project
These are states which began to aggressively relax stay-at-home restrictions in late April and early May.
I did not include Louisiana because it still has broad restrictions in place. I also excluded Arkansas. It was an outlier. It had a 242% week to week increase in cases on Tuesday. On Monday it had 287 new cases, a 1000% increase.
While the uptick in the South is worrisome, it’s too early to call this a new trend. The data over the next week should give us a better idea.
